Biggest Downswing of my Career - Advice Needed

[ohgodthissux]

Hi All,

So where do I start...I've been playing Poker for a few years but just started taking it seriously last January. I started with the cent limits and built my roll using the standard guidelines and have now reached a point where I am very much overrolled for 3-6. I "took a shot" at 5-10 a month ago but dropped down after a mini losing streak and went back to my comfort zone at 3-6.

But in this past month at 3-6 I have been running horribly (or so I hope). Over 25,000 hands I have been averaging -.5BB/100hands. I always see the downswing posts on 2p2 and I have been critiquing my game but I really dont see many flaws. I compare my stats to the compiled numbers "CallMeIshmael" posted a while back to fill a few leaks but overall my numbers are close to what a "winning player's" are supposed to be.

The only leaks I have found are that I don't fold to enough river bets - 2p2 mean is 45%, mine is 32%. And I need to get my VPIP in the SB down 5%. But are these major faults? I mean I try not to fold winners on the river in big pots but maybe I need to listen to my gut a little more when I know I'm beat.

So...is a 25,000 hand losing streak something for me to get worried about my game over or is this variance, has this happened to others??

thanks guys.

[Bob T.]

First the good news, if my arithmatic is right, you are on a 125 big bet downswing. Yeah, that happens. It sucks when it does, but it still happens.

Now lets take a little deeper look. Ok, lets test the assumption that you are a 1.5 bb/100 player at this limit.

If that were true, your expectation over 25000 hands would be about 375 Big bets, instead you are down 125, a shortfall of 500. If your SD/ 100 was 15, then the expected standard deviation over 25000 hands would be:

SQRT( 250*15*15) or 237. That means that your shortfall over the last 25000 hands would be almost 2 Standard deviations. In other words, there is probably a less than 1% chance that you are a 1.5 BB / 100 player with that losing stretch.

Ok, now for some other bad news. A lot of times, I see a player who has statistics that make them look like a good player. But when you see them play, you see that they are making a lot of mistakes, where they are playing hands improperly, or just playing the wrong mix of hands. For instance, a couple of weeks ago, I was playing with a player that seemed fairly tight, and appropriately aggressive. Two to his right, was a player who was as big of a calling station, as I have seen on the internet for a long time. He actually called river bets on more than one occasion with as little as ten high.

Anyway, the tight player was isolating the calling station alot, but, he was throwing in isolation raises, with low suited connectors. Against a player who might fold, that might be a good idea, but against this player, it wasn't because you were going to have to showdown to beat him. Even if it was just a curiosity call, you still had to have a hand that could beat him, and unimproved low suited connectors just don't have that much showdown value, so he was getting called and losing, in situations where most of the time the hand wouldn't have gone to showdown. He didn't adjust his game for the nature of his opponent, and it cost him a lot of money.

Your statistics, could match a good players profile exactly, but if you are using the wrong mix of hands to get that profile, then you are probably not going to have the same results as that good player.

Finally some more good news. This forum is a great place for getting those problems diagnosed and getting your game on track, (if indeed it is off track) or to figure out that you are playing well, but just running horribly.

Post some hands, join some other discussions, and you will probably be running better in the future.

[ArtVandelay]

[ QUOTE ]
Now lets take a little deeper look. Ok, lets test the assumption that you are a 1.5 bb/100 player at this limit.

If that were true, your expectation over 25000 hands would be about 375 Big bets, instead you are down 125, a shortfall of 500. If your SD/ 100 was 15, then the expected standard deviation over 25000 hands would be:

SQRT( 250*15*15) or 237. That means that your shortfall over the last 25000 hands would be almost 2 Standard deviations. In other words, there is probably a less than 1% chance that you are a 1.5 BB / 100 player with that losing stretch.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is way wrong. First, doing two standard deviations or worse below average should happen a little more than 2% of the time, not 1%. Additionally, you are focusing on one particular bad run and ignoring the fact that OP built his roll from micro stakes. The more hands OP played, the more likely he would experience a streak like this at some point.

OP, limit is a sick game. Even the best players have losing streaks over 25k hands every once in a while. Stick with it!

[Little_blue]

I loved this analysis. I think the math is slightly wrong. Made a quick check on the internet, 1 standard deviation 67% 2 standard deviation 95% 3 standard deviation 99%...since less then 2...figures to bettor then 5% that he is right.

Of course everything else you said is correct.

Also may want to consider, that the last month has seen some changes in on line poker...this can also account for some diffrences. As the game tightens up game selection and seat position becomes more and more important to your game.

[HoneyBadger]

Downswings make you a better player. Seriously look at what you did wrong in hands. People never bother when they win; they'll never say "omg, look at this hand I won a 20 BB pot, it could've been 22 BB! I played so horribly"

[Alex424]

[ QUOTE ]
Downswings make you a better player. Seriously look at what you did wrong in hands. People never bother when they win; they'll never say "omg, look at this hand I won a 20 BB pot, it could've been 22 BB! I played so horribly"

[/ QUOTE ]

I couldn't agree more - i had a major downswing about 6 months ago and it was only after investing time and effort into analysing hands i realised i had leaks that were adding to it.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
People never bother when they win; they'll never say "omg, look at this hand I won a 20 BB pot, it could've been 22 BB! I played so horribly"

[/ QUOTE ]

I do that constantly. While it might be good for my game, it sucks for my sanity. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ArtVandelay]

He is within two standard deviations 95.4%, so he is up more than two 2.3% and down more than two 2.3%. We only care about when he runs really bad, not really good, so this downswing is indeed a 2.3% ~ 2% occurance (ignoring the other data).

[Sarge85]

Bob, your a stud, and the board (since I just apparently nominated myself as Speaker of The Board) is grateful to have you post here.

Thanks

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[mjkidd]

[ QUOTE ]
Bob, your a stud, and the board (since I just apparently nominated myself as Speaker of The Board) is grateful to have you post here.

Thanks

Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm actually mildly pleased to indifferent.