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#1
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NL50: Top two pair on flop - fold, push, call?
Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 6 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $40.99 UTG+1: $43 Hero: $60.10 Button: $38.01 SB: $57.69 BB: $85.05 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $2</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB folds. Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($6.5, 3 players) SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $15</font>, Hero?!?!? So - what's my play here? Fold, push or just call? Villian is pretty TAG and occasionally plays back against me. |
#2
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Re: NL50: Top two pair on flop - fold, push, call?
This is a pretty tough spot IMO, so I'm interested to hear what everyone else thinks. I don't think you can fold with top two here...but there are a lot really solid draws out so you don't want to play the rest of the hand with three players.
I think really your only option is to push. Fold equity is probably pretty good and hands like AA, KK, maybe even AQ will call. I think QQ or pocket tens would have re-raised you preflop (and are less likely since you already hold them), so you are really only losing badly to 33. You are a marginal (~20%) dog to KsJs/Js9s. I think the fold equity and the chance to stack AA, KK (on the off chance they were played like this preflop) makes this push +EV. |
#3
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Re: NL50: Top two pair on flop - fold, push, call?
Yeh that was a similar to what I was thinking and without disturbing the discussion of theory on this, I will say I did push.
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#4
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Re: NL50: Top two pair on flop - fold, push, call?
No suprise to what im about to say, easy push.
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#5
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Re: NL50: Top two pair on flop - fold, push, call?
Only hand he has that beats you is 33, or a not likely 1010. Lotta draws he can be raising with, and lots of cards you don't wanna see on the turn...Pushtastic spot for me.
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#6
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Re: NL50: Top two pair on flop - fold, push, call?
Yeah really easy shove for me, I can't imagine folding this, and if you're not folding shoving is the only move.
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#7
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Re: NL50: Top two pair on flop - fold, push, call?
You must, MUST shove.
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#8
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Re: NL50: Top two pair on flop - fold, push, call?
I push without a specific read telling me otherwise. |
#9
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Re: NL50: Top two pair on flop - fold, push, call?
[ QUOTE ]
You are a marginal (~20%) dog to KsJs/Js9s. [/ QUOTE ] On a re-evaluation I'm actually exactly 50/50 with KJs and J9s and ahead of AJs so its really only a set I'm a dog to here... Hmmm keeps looking more and more like a push situation! |
#10
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Re: NL50: Top two pair on flop - fold, push, call?
Hmmm...I guess if he does make his straight or flush you do have (4 outs)x(2 streets) = ~16% to make your boat, which closes the gap to 50/50 and makes the push look even more attractive. Nice point.
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