hay donks, a hand i played!

[Ship Ship McGipp]

historyt is this

PokerStars Game #12100992186: Tournament #60481694, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2007/09/16 - 21:57:30 (ET)
Table '60481694 32' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: BeL0WaB0Ve (35910 in chips)
Seat 2: djk123 (31527 in chips)
Seat 3: aejones (41792 in chips)
Seat 4: stpauli111 (14486 in chips)
Seat 5: Beldar C. (37800 in chips)
Seat 6: LaJune (30324 in chips)
Seat 7: TheTownhouse (18313 in chips)
Seat 8: GUNNERS_RULE (7440 in chips)
Seat 9: tiger76 (14310 in chips)
BeL0WaB0Ve: posts the ante 50
djk123: posts the ante 50
aejones: posts the ante 50
stpauli111: posts the ante 50
Beldar C.: posts the ante 50
LaJune: posts the ante 50
TheTownhouse: posts the ante 50
GUNNERS_RULE: posts the ante 50
tiger76: posts the ante 50
Beldar C.: posts small blind 300
LaJune: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to aejones [7c 8h]
TheTownhouse: folds
GUNNERS_RULE: folds
tiger76: folds
BeL0WaB0Ve: folds
djk123: folds
aejones: raises 1200 to 1800
stpauli111: folds
Beldar C.: folds
LaJune: raises 28474 to 30274 and is all-in
aejones: folds
aejones said, "lolllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll llllll"
LaJune collected 4350 from pot
LaJune: doesn't show hand
aejones said, "end of a sunday at least i get to smile"


then this hapens

PokerStars Game #12101651606: Tournament #60481694, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (600/1200) - 2007/09/16 - 22:35:26 (ET)
Table '60481694 32' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: BeL0WaB0Ve (37208 in chips)
Seat 2: AD-Zizzle (31870 in chips)
Seat 3: aejones (52679 in chips)
Seat 4: stpauli111 (19294 in chips)
Seat 5: Jovial Gent (33562 in chips)
Seat 6: LaJune (41050 in chips)
Seat 7: Exclusive (55970 in chips)
Seat 8: wwwBTHEREcom (19202 in chips)
Seat 9: tiger76 (18898 in chips)
BeL0WaB0Ve: posts the ante 125
AD-Zizzle: posts the ante 125
aejones: posts the ante 125
stpauli111: posts the ante 125
Jovial Gent: posts the ante 125
LaJune: posts the ante 125
Exclusive: posts the ante 125
wwwBTHEREcom: posts the ante 125
tiger76: posts the ante 125
Exclusive: posts small blind 600
wwwBTHEREcom: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to aejones [Ks As]
tiger76: folds
BeL0WaB0Ve: folds
AD-Zizzle: folds
aejones: raises 2100 to 3300
stpauli111: folds
Jovial Gent: raises 6300 to 9600
LaJune: raises 31325 to 40925 and is all-in
Exclusive: folds
wwwBTHEREcom: folds
waht do i do


reads are that lajune is prob a tournament player and i hink other people think he's good but he's prob not

i thinik jovial is prob soild i here but he m ight know who i am and i think he prob flats aa or kk here at least half the time, bnut not sure, i'm obv not super worried about him

also, for the record, no i did NOT post this just so i could show the history of it going 3bb to 50 bbs, it's not THAT funny, so stop laughing

[mikeJ]

I don't think the 1st hand is near proof enough that this dude is 4-betting cold w/ AQ or worse. Aside from that, jovial's 3-betting range is going to be largely dependent on how you've been playing @ the table / how aggressive you've been w/ pf raises up to that point.

Anyhow, I believe it's a fold.

[EC10]

meh id call.

[Bakes]

fold? no way i definitely shove. lajune can shove TT+ AK here, and jovial is wide a lot.

[mastr]

SHIP IT SON

[KingDan]

your AE [censored] JONES HES SHOVING AJ FOR VALUE

[Ship Ship McGipp]

i dunno he strikes me as playing straight forward, only two hands i've seen him play are what i posted

[Legend27]

I am LaJune and I run worse than any one on Stars. If I raise you all-in I never want you to call. Showdowns make me lose as I showed flopping top set in the top 18 and mucking on the river (all in preflop).

[nath]

lol @ folding AKs getting 3:2

[mikeJ]

mastr, I think people are very rarely showing up w/ AQ there.

When Jovial folds...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.625% 44.28% 12.35% 100079772 27906468.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.375% 31.03% 12.35% 70131420 27906468.00 { AKs }

You'll be getting about 57 to 37.7, so you need like 39.8% equity. So that's good for us.

When Jovial calls...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.243% 32.62% 05.62% 1244770860 214645234.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 36.582% 32.13% 04.46% 1225973712 170072626.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 2: 25.175% 17.41% 07.76% 664526364 296190340.00 { AKs }

We're going to be getting around 73 to 30 in the main pot. We need 29.1% equity in the main pot. And we'll need to put another 7500 in the pot for the sidepot, which we will be putting in as a dog vs. LaJune's range. This is bad for us.

The only reason why this is close is because we have AKs, if we had AKo, this is a fold, and with AKs it's real close. I haven't played w/ atimos much so I don't know how often he's 3-betting light here. However, I think putting TT into LaJune's 4-betting range is generous. Yea, maybe he did a donkey overbet shove in hand 1, it doesn't mean he's going to suicide 4-bet cold shove w/ TT here. Also, when it gets back to atimos, he'll be getting just about 3 to 1, and I think there's a decent chance he'll fold AKo if mr. aejones reships.