2+2 overvalues favorites, creating mispriced markets

[llabb]

This season is interesting the way the market has priced contestants. And the more it develops, the more it looks like 2+2 is impacting it in a funny way. The new forum visibility and previous 2+2 AI success has brought a lot of new 2+2'ers in, while the UIGA and online atmosphere has probably decreased general public betting on random stuff like AI markets. (Sports probably less affected, but things like AI betting are more for casual bettors usually.)

So basically, that means that you get markets priced in large part on the groupthink of this forum. Not everyone here agrees, of course, and there will always be people thinking differently than others, but there's a general consensus, and that's relected in the WSEX pricing.

One thing that is clear is that 2+2 overvalues favorites and has bid them up to crazy levels. Two weeks ago, it was Lakisha, who was the dominant favorite, and would probably win this competition. This past week, it's Melinda, who is now the dominant favorite, and will probably win this competition. Next week, who knows who it will be. Perhaps still one of these two, whoever has the better performance, or perhaps shockingly even someone new, like one of the top guys giving an absolutely amazing performance and "coming from nowhere" even though they were always solid and had a shot at this thing.

[mynamewastaken]

Although you're probably right, it's partly a result of high rollers on this forum dominating an inefficient market and pricing little guys out, and partly an effect of 5 previous seasons worth of data at our disposal leading to fewer errors by the books. It is truly only the naive that believe each of the remaining contestants has a 1/16 chance, when in reality there are people whos chances I would round to zero, and 4-5 who collectively make up greater than 99% of the likely winner's pool.

What will you say if Melinda/Lakisha run away with it?

[thing85]

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What will you say if Melinda/Lakisha run away with it?

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This would obviously be a results-oriented view. What will you say if my 72o beats your AA?

"nh." And you move on.

Analogy isn't perfect, but llaab believes that betting the current prices of the favorites would be -EV (or 0 EV). Winning a -EV proposition does not change the fact that you made a poor decision.

Note: I do not agree with llaab, but asking him what he'll say if/when one of Melinda/Lakisha win is pointless.

[mynamewastaken]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What will you say if Melinda/Lakisha run away with it?

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This would obviously be a results-oriented view. What will you say if my 72o beats your AA?

"nh." And you move on.

Analogy isn't perfect, but llaab believes that betting the current prices of the favorites would be -EV (or 0 EV). Winning a -EV proposition does not change the fact that you made a poor decision.

Note: I do not agree with llaab, but asking him what he'll say if/when one of Melinda/Lakisha win is pointless.

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No more poker analogies. We know what the true odds of AA beating 72o are. We do NOT know the true current odds of Melinda winning (except 1/16 if it was totally random). So it's not a results-oriented view, because if I place a bet on Melinda at +185 now I'm pretty much expecting her to go the distance.

[thing85]

myname,

My first post was in response to llaab.

[mynamewastaken]

[ QUOTE ]
myname,

My first post was in response to llaab.

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Yeah sorry I figured that out too late. I'm working on an essay about Canadian mobility rights ATM and just took a quick break. I should probably read a thread in full before replying

[thing85]

Point well taken, but this entire notion has been established multiple times by you and other posters.

Additionally, this is about making money. If groupthink from this forum is going to overvalue certain contestants, wouldn't it be smart to then buy those contestants early on? If 2+2 does indeed overvalue them, you will be able to earn a healthy profit as long as you react quickly.

The guys who you allude to as "coming from nowhere" are already priced accordingly. I don't see any value in the top guys right now. I don't think they are overvalued, but they are not cheap.

Rather than criticizing this forum's "incorrect" valuation of the contestants, why not offer some constructive advice? What does your portfolio look like? Who are your picks and what do you think is the "real" price of them?

[mynamewastaken]

I've already posted my portfolio in the 'post your portfolio' thread. I have shorted Lakisha, bought Melinda (both prior to the top-24 results). bought small on Sundance, Brandon, Jordin. Have big bets prior to the season starting on an o23.5 winner and a female winner. I've already explained my reasoning for those bets and if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit it. I also would never suppose that my guess is better than anyone else's, and respect everyone's opinion on here as long as they offer some reasoning for it (which you did, that comment wasnt directed at you at all).

I also wasn't criticizing this forum or its valuation, merely pointing out that its an inevitable result when dealing with an inefficient market. There's no constructive criticism I could offer except "try to work around it". I honestly don't think many of the theories that work in sports betting like 'fading the public' apply here because it's not a fair contest.

Mostly, I just disagree with your assertion that Melinda is overvalued. I know I'm repeating myself, but that thinking comes from the notion that you're being offered 3-1 odds on what appears to be a 16-1 shot. In fact, I think it can be no more than a 5-1 shot, possibly even a 4-1 shot or she might be an even greater fav than that. But what this means is that 3-1 odds is a bad bet, but not an AWFUL one. In fact, it's exactly where I would expect her to be given that WSEX is trying to make money out of the deal too.

You say the top guys are overvalued. I don't think this is true at all. 6 guys will make it to the top 12, and they will NOT get picked off one by one. Even if it seems like they will, I can pretty much guarantee a guy in the top 3, and the worst that guy could do is a Yamin-like showing which would peak at... sell 20? higher?

But if you diversify your portfolio too much, the rake structure will kill you. That's why I just picked a couple of people I think have an outside shot (Brandon, Sundance). Who knows... it could be Blake or Richardson or even Sligh or Stacey, but one of these guys is going to make some gamblers look really good down the stretch.

I was wrong about Bo winning the competition, but he did come in 2nd and I sold him off for a healthy profit before it was too late anyway. Same with McPhee. In both cases I spotted them early (and they were early favs, although not as great as Doolittle/Jones are this year) and held on until the final 4 before changing my position at all. This is what I plan to do this year, and will make money in the interim on last-longers (I am in pretty big this week for Jared to go home and Brandon to stay, and a half unit on Gina to stay).

EDIT: wow I wrote that whole post without even knowing if the above post was directed at me. I hope I didn't offend anyone. I'm leaving it as is because I think it has some useful info in it, but sorry for its tone if anyone takes offense to it. I must be high or something... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[govman6767]

Since Lakisha is the best singer vocal wise AI has ever had it's hard not to rate her among the favorites

[soflat]

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Since Lakisha is the best singer vocal wise AI has ever had it's hard not to rate her among the favorites

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I just listened to most of their mp3s.

Lakisha was incredible Week 1. After that quite average and she is making a lot of mistakes making it sound amateurish.

Doolittle consistently very polished sound. I hate to admit it because I like others a whole lot more.

Gina Glocksen really found her song last week. Sounded like a real recording artist. Reminds me of Kelly Clarkson.

Richardson is great too. I thought he was weird, but he sounds good without watching him.

Anyways, back to who is over/under valued. Lakisha over, Glocksen under.

I don't know what happens when Lakisha is out. Do others move up or is it all Doolittle?