Men's Wimbledon Early Prices

[Ortho]

R. Federer -233
A. Roddick +1270
R. Nadal +1924
M. Ancic +1940
L. Hewitt +2051
D. Nalbandian +2578
I. Ljubicic +3612
T. Henman +5307
J. Blake +3674
A. Murray +5226

Ok, Federer at -232. These are pinnacle prices, you can probably do better elsewhere. This is an attributed 70% winning chance for the Fed, and if my math is right, this is equivalent to backing him at -1900 for all seven matches.

We all know how good Federer is, but even Sampras lost matches at Wimbledon. Everyone has lost matches at Wimbledon. Federer will lose matches at Wimbledon. This is too short.

What I'm having trouble figuring out is whether it's in the "too short but unbettable" range or if I can find someone to take him on with. Nadal, at +1924, looks immediately tempting. Yes, I know this is grass, but Nadal looked sharp yesterday at Queen's and I prefer him to Roddick, who has been giving off that "I might just be done" vibe for the entire year.

I also prefer Nadal to Ancic and Hewitt at basically the same prices. Ancic doesn't seem to quite be there yet, and Hewitt seems to have slipped a notch from his best. Ljubicic looks interesting at +3612, but I don't really believe he can win.

Federer is beatable. He can get the sniffles, get an injury, have a bad day (though he clearly has fewer bad days on grass), or (and I acknowledge that the possibility of this is remote at this point) face a better player on grass. Nadal seems to own him on clay. This is grass, but Nadal has stated that he really wants to win Wimbledon, and has even allegedly installed a grass court at his home. He really could be the next big thing. However, he went out 3rd round in 04 and was injured last year. 18.25-1 compensates me for a lot of doubts, but enough? I'm leaning toward thinking so.

In any event, I can't have Federer at these prices, even though I will be rooting for him.

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

nadal seems good value at that price i guess?

with the chance of an injury in tennis there seems no way you can bet on federer

[freewheeler]

Go Timmy Go!! 53/1 enough for a wee flutter... Short price on Federer is not a silly price. He is head and shoulders above all others and DOES deserve 70% of the book. It's silly to break that down evenly to the 7 matches. The early ones are in the 100+/1 range, then obvioulsly much shorter in the later rounds. All things considered, it's hard to see anyone beating him. Ljubicic is a very solid and consistent player who has really come into his own as one of the elite players in the world. If anyone can beat Federer on grass (which I doubt)the Croatian would be my pick.

[Ortho]

I've been looking at this a bit more. Last year, Federer started at -150, with Hewitt at +1000, Nadal at +1200, Safin at +1600, Henman at +1400. So, Federer is a bigger favorite this year than last, owing I think to the perceived lack of competition from the others.

[PartyGirlUK]

Federer has won 50 straight on grass. He is 197-7 over the past 2 years v all opponents other than Nadal.

[freewheeler]

So maybe if anything 2/5 is BIG price... Let's face it, he's gonna win. Can't remember when there was ever a bigger favourite. Even Sampras at his finest was never this clearly ahead of the rest IMO.

[mike l.]

i follow tennis a bit and love betting it. i correctly bet nadal and henin to win the french before it started. federer will definitely win wimbledon and it's not close. i agree -233 is a bit of a joke but betting anyone else would be a waste of money.

[Ortho]

I've gone off Nadal over the course of the day, based on more looking around that I've done and his rather unimpressive (though I only saw half the match--if his opponent hadn't gotten injured, he could well have lost) display today at Queens.

I still think Federer is too short, especially after he dropped a set to Gasquet today, but I don't have any real belief in taking him on with anyone. If I play here, I'm probably just going to lay Federer on Betfair or pass the whole market. Since a lay is basically gambling on Federer to have a bad day somewhere through the event, I see no reason to lay him now; I'd rather hope he wins this week and try to lay him even shorter.

For now, no play for me.

[mike l.]

federer's -200 at william hill. theyre a good place to bet tennis. he's also 1.28 to win the thing theyre playing this week which he most certainly will.

[freewheeler]

[ QUOTE ]
or pass the whole market.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is definitely your better choice.