My poker path... what now? (long)

[AlfilRey]

I´ve been playing poker for 2 years or so now. I started off like most, enduring a few weeks at the playmoney tables before finally taking the plunge and hitting the $0.02/0.04 tables on stars. The first year involved playing mostly small stakes, a lot of $0.10/$0.25 and $0.25/0.50, not playing that much and with hardly massive success. Still, it´s not that hard to move up these levels and after the first year of semi-regular play, I had about $7-8k to my name and was playing $2/4 regularly, taking the odd shot at bigger games.

Still, that was not a lot to show for a year of poker, so about 11 months ago I decided to take things a bit more seriously than I had until then, and started taking down my results and setting myself some challenges (either in terms of money to make, hands to play, hours to put in...it varied).

Luckily for me, this coincided with a patch of good variance, and combining this with taking up PLO and finding that a much easier game to beat than the rest, I ended up making 60k between live and online in the space of a couple of months. Suddenly, I had a significant bankroll.

This was followed by a severe change of luck and, though once again I was inconsistent regarding how much I actually played, I found myself roughly breaking even for the next 6 months.

This frustrating period came to an end when I travelled to a live poker festival with €3500 and came back with €20,000 5 days later. Suddenly, I had a roll of around €70,000 (around $100k)(the reason i didnt have more is because I had taken out of my roll during the year to pay for random things).

Now came a stretch where due to other issues (exams mainly) I stopped playing for a couple of months. Then, at the very start of the summer, with the exams over, I started playing again. I deposited about $10,000 spread over a couple of sites and I immediately started to win at 5/10. Quickly I started playing at 10/20 and even took shots at 25/50. Over the space of a couple of weeks I had more than doubled my roll, to about $220,000.

However, I then lost about $65,000 of that in 2 days of 25/50 headsup. I was exercising some pretty poor bankroll management as you can see, but I guess I got overconfident. Either way, I was left pretty pissed off at myself for having lost so much in such a short space of time, so I vowed to quit for a long time.

I didn´t play a hand of poker over the next 2.5 months, and this brings me onto mid-September, when I came back eager to put in a few solid results.

However, since then, I have done nothing but lose. I started back up at 10/20, and have since dropped down to $5/10, then to $2.50/5 and even trying to multitable $1/2. I can do nothing but lose buyins. 80% of my play was in one site in particular and 20% in the other. I ran equally bad in both sites, only of course in one over a sample size 4 tiems greater than in the other. For some reason those hands are corrupted and I don´t know how to fix that, but I downloaded the PokerEV software for the 10% hands site and was running 20k below equity over 2,500 hands or so in all-ins alone.

During this horrible 3-week period, I´ve managed to lose about $35,000. I never thought it would be possible to run this bad. This post isn´t intentioned as a "pity me, I am so unlucky" post though. The reason for this post is a more constructive one. Basically, I need the advice of other people who have played fairly High Stakes, and have perhaps experienced these kind of vicious swings with serious, potentially life-changing money at stake and how they have reacted.

At the moment, my roll is at about $110,000, half of what it was at its peak. This is still my profit for this year, but I am very worried that I will simply continue to lose and lose. As you can see, I have been pretty erratic in my play and my bankroll has increased, not consistently, but rather during brief periods of a mix between running good, focusing and a bit of gamble...

Dropping so much of my bankroll (from my peak) has me questioning whether poker will ever be a steady source of income or if I´ll ever know what my true winrate is.

Put simply, I am just looking to make the best decisions regarding what to do with my money and how to make money in the future.

I am in college right now and am willing to consider a bunch of different possibilities. I could just use the money I have right now to get me through college and into a decent job. I could try to play through the downswing, taking the risk of a greater hammering to my bankroll. I could drop down stakes massively, and only play poker to pay for my day-to-day expenses to not have to tap into the $100k+ over the next few years. I could also maybe look at investing, perhaps in the stock market, though I know nothing about this right now. To anybody who knows about this, would it be worth my time to spend a lot of hours researching it, or is it better to stick to poker?

I´m only 20 right now, so I don´t feel like it´s too late to quit anything that isn´t worth my while, but the sooner I work out what my best options are, the better.

Hopefully some mid-stakes / high-stakes players have been in similar spots in the past and have come out of them by making good decisions and learning from any mistakes along the way. I´d appreciate any opinions.

edit: I felt this would be the best forum to post this in, but if mods disagree then I apologise and pls move it to where you see fit.

[tmcdmck]

leave yourself a 10k bankroll, drop down until you are properly rolled and grind up the stakes. leave the rest somewhere it will be safe until you are out of college. that way you can keep playing poker, find out if it was a downswing or if you have just started sucking/ gone on lifetilt, and have a juicy nest egg allowing you to do whatever you want when you leave college. you seriously need to drop down stakes and learn about bankrolling before you can make AND keep money, so it will be a good experience, and if you really are a winning player you can build up a great roll from 10k in no time. hell, 10k is a great roll for most!

[poker12]

lock

[DrMagic]

I think you should probably quit playing. You don't seem to have the discipline for it. Lack of br management means eventual busto/luckbox robusto then busto. If you wanna keep playing, keep 20k and play 2/4PLO maybe. Play a few 100k hands and see where you're really at.

[Adebisi]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should probably quit playing. You don't seem to have the discipline for it. Lack of br management...

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF? He had a 45 buy-in roll for 25-50, ran bad over a couple of days and dropped 13 buy-ins, then immediately moved down...and kept moving down until he got to 1/2 (still with over 100k in his br).

As for how he built up his roll, taking a some shots when he was running good and winning does NOT mean he has poor bankroll management.

When you're winning a lot you try to move up, maybe a bit earlier than you technically should bankroll-wise. When you're losing a lot, you move down, maybe a bit earlier than you technically have to bankroll-wise.

As for what the OP should do, his problem certainly isn't bankroll management. His problem is determining whether he really sucks and just went on a sick heater in the beginning, or he's really good and just went a sick downswing in the end.

To the OP: My advise is for you to find someone you knowsto be a really good player and have them take a look at a bunch of your hands. If your game looks good, than go back to playing 10/20 with your 110k roll. If your game doesn't look good, than just quit. You seem to have an ambivalent attitude over whether you want to keep playing at all, which is understandable given the swings you've seen. But spending you're time playing 1/2 nl is pretty retarded. Either you're a donk that lucksacked your way into 110k, or you're a player that has the bankroll and ability to beat 10/20+. Either way, playing 1/2 nl is a pretty dumb way to spend your time.

[Lefort]

Take out $100k, put it away, and never touch it again for poker. Use the $10k to start at 1/2nl and try to move up. If you don't win and move up, you weren't cut out for the game and you should be happy that you managed to suck $100k from it. If you win and move up, it'll give you confidence to play the mid-high stakes again.

[good2cu]

AlfliRay,

As someone who has built up a roll into the mid-low six figures and lost a good chunk of it a few times now I feel your pain. Going on an extended downswing can shake your confidence, ruin your poker game and even sink you into acute depression. It’s the nature of the life we choose.
If I were you I’d take at least another week or two break from poker and let your head clear. I know what you are going trough. You want to win your money back. But you’re not playing you’re A game right now and will find it tough to play well at lower stakes (as you will be trying to win your money back). After the break I’d probably cash out at least half your roll and start grinding 2/4NL while making sure you are leading a very balanced well rounded life (as this will make you happier and help your poker game).
I know this is very painful but it’s the nature of the life we choose. Learn from your mistakes and look ahead. I’ve been in this spot more than once and have won all of money make and became a much better player and person due to these mistakes/downswings.

[Eagles]

AlfilRay,
I get the idea from reading your post that you haven't played enough hands to have any idea what your real winrate/what games your +ev.

[MegaFossil]

Could part of the problem be that he ran up his roll a year or two ago when the games were playing a lot different? Seems like he hasn't played much this year until mid-September and hasn't adjusted his game to the new style of play since UIGEA. Maybe rebuild your game at the lower stakes and see if you can win there before moving back up and playing 5/10+ again.

[AlcateL]

[ QUOTE ]
Could part of the problem be that he ran up his roll a year or two ago when the games were playing a lot different? Seems like he hasn't played much this year until mid-September and hasn't adjusted his game to the new style of play since UIGEA. Maybe rebuild your game at the lower stakes and see if you can win there before moving back up and playing 5/10+ again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't help but agree with this, the games are massively different from 1 yr ago