How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?

SongheJe · #1 11-24-2007, 06:08 PM

Hello,
after strings of 1-2000 games going up in ROI, I always experience a period really hard to deal with.
Time ago I wrote a program, that I called 'luckometer' to just check difference from won chips and EV in preflop allins 1v1. I found that in the long run difference should tend to 0.
However, at a certain point , bad luck seem unstoppable.
I give an example with some numbers (from today)..
143 25$+2$ sit & go played
I was 352 times allin preflop (1v1 showdown).
I was 51.42% on edge vs my opponent's hand.
My expected value was 600,087 chips.
I extracted from pots just 483,088 chips.
Difference is 24.22% negative, 116,999 chips were lost in bad luck..
I wrote a simulator too that repeat the games flip and, playing 352 allins 200 times it never had a so negative result.
Is there anyone with a good math/statistic background that can help me to calculate what's the % I have to run so bad with a given number of flips ?

Meanwhile I will simulate a long run with the simulator to see how many times 'this may happen' in an empiric way
Thanks
SJ

JSmith2007 · #2 11-24-2007, 06:09 PM

fold preflop

Hattifnatt · #3 11-24-2007, 06:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
calculate what's the % I have to run so bad with a given number of flips ?

[/ QUOTE ]
50:50, either you run that bad or you dont.

mugatu668 · #4 11-24-2007, 06:16 PM

this post is actually pretty interesting. how many SD's is he off?

hate_dr_dre · #5 11-24-2007, 06:18 PM

to answer your question:

lugnt · #6 11-24-2007, 06:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
to answer your question:

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's running bad

SongheJe · #7 11-24-2007, 06:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this post is actually pretty interesting. how many SD's is he off?

[/ QUOTE ]
What's SD ?

vetiver · #8 11-24-2007, 06:29 PM

All SNGs were played post-legislation, so that's not it:

spacegravy · #9 11-24-2007, 06:19 PM

Jesus, I have never seen a losing player complain as much as you. If your down after the 15k games you've played for the love of God, your a LOSING player. And I use to play with you all the time and you don't know what's going on.

SongheJe · #10 11-24-2007, 06:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus, I have never seen a losing player complain as much as you. If your down after the 15k games you've played for the love of God, your a LOSING player. And I use to play with you all the time and you don't know what's going on.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you never lost 120K chips more than expected in 300 allins. However, I'm asking a question on some NUMBERS. Really don't understand why you have to insult this way.
It's really sad. Good luck