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#1
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Optimum bluffing frequency question
Alright, it's been a while since I've really read through Theory of Poker, but maybe someone could clear this up for me. I'm interested in tweaking my game so as to bluff optimally. This results in a situation where we don't care if he calls or folds - we win long run either way.
Let's just take a scenario. I raise KJss on the button and get 3b by a TAG BB. I call. (pot: 6.5 sb) flop is 235r and he continues, I call. (pot 8.5 sb) I'm assuming he's going to lead any turn, making the pot 5.25 BB. If I raise, he is getting 7.25:1 on the call, so my bluffing frequency should be 1:7.25, or 12.1%, which equates to about 5 cards in the deck (47*.121). I am going to choose any 8 and the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I chose these over cards like As, Qs, and Ts, because those make up more of his 3b'ing range. So the optimum way to play this turn is to raise any K, J, and any of my 5 randomly chosen cards. amirite? Another thought: If you're going to commit to bluffing the turn AND the river, how should this affect our numbers? Should we change our turn bluff frequency to be 9.25:1 (9.8%)? |
#2
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Re: Optimum bluffing frequency question
well you are seeming to think of them independently, u need to apply okay he calls turn x amount of the time so if i bluff the river this amount of the time also its break even. Its almost impossible to put an exact number on these, if you understand the concepts he explains for them u are in good shape
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#3
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Re: Optimum bluffing frequency question
you have to consider that you are semibluffing with your pair outs. sometimes he will call and you still win on the river
also 235r is a bad flop to bluff because an ace is never folding before the river, and by then they'll just call for the hell of it |
#4
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Re: Optimum bluffing frequency question
This talk about bluffingtheory in TOP is not supposed to be some kind of DIRECT tool, but more an INdirect tool to helps one mind how often to bluff in marginal situations. This is game theory and it also assumes that your opponent knows gametheory. One of the points that can be drawn from TOP is actually if u have an average bluffingfrequency about 10% then when the pot is bigger than 9 bets you should bluff and if it is less you should not. But of course there is a lot of other factors to consider as f.ex. how often does your opponent thinks you bluff. A fish doesn't consider folding at all and he assumes u bluff 100% of the time - against this type of player forget about bluffingfrequency.
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#5
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Re: Optimum bluffing frequency question
It's more complex than that. The classical example of optimal bluffing frequency (a river bet) assumes that you have nothing or the nuts, so we bluff 1/(pot+2) of the time to avoid being exploited and make the villian indifferent.
There are some differences in the example you provided (let's ignore if this is a good board to bluff or our opponentt tendencies). When there are cards to come, you are in fact semibluffing, so you'll win sometimes when you are called against some of his bluff-catchers (as yourface said). That inclines us to semibluff slightly more than betsize/pot+2 of the time. On the other hand, when we .raise for value, we don't have the nuts 100% of the time. We are raising with certain equity against his range. We may raise for value and still lose to a better hand or a worse hand that improves on the river, so that should incline us to bluff less An approximation of the optimal actions here must take into account 1) What range we have and 2)What we do with each hand in our range. The key is balancing semibluff raises and value raises in a manner our opponent can't exploit us easily (optimal strategy is impossible to calculate). A good idea is thinking that our opp knows our strategy but we don't care because he won't improve his EV adding more or less hands/call-downs/re-bluffs/value re-raises. I recommend you The Mathematics of Poker for deep explanations on this topics. |
#6
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Re: Optimum bluffing frequency question
I know the game theorists and mathematicians have devised thie game theoretical optimal bluffing strategy however on the internet I really think that you have do consider a number of factors with game theory being low on the list.
Ie probablity of getting called, number of outs should your opponent call, number of opponents, is there a chance your hand is good?, opponents hand range, skill level of opponent(s), texture of the board etc etc If you can fathom these and more factors out your level of error calculating this will have the optimal bluffing strategy more than covered during the short space of time allowed on the net. If anybody is good enough to make this calculation faultlessly in the time allowed and then add the necessary bluff outs to the calculation they are playing at a very high standard. |
#7
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Re: Optimum bluffing frequency question
Seems to me that a zero bluffing frequency is optimal since nobody folds anything anymore (small-stakes at least).
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#8
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Re: Optimum bluffing frequency question
first off that section in TOP
is more applicable to noncommunity card games where your cards are hidden if you want to bluff in the LHE its all about board textures kindof like writing a story the action must make sense up to that point and only bluff vs those who arent sd bound they have a low WTSD% and b/f far too often example hand you raise from CO or button with your KsJs the sb folds and the TAG bb 3bets flop is Ts 6 5 so you currently have 6 pair outs and 1.5outs for a bdf but your K outs may be dirty so we discount those by half all together you have about 6outs getting 7.5:1 from the pot makes this an easy call turn is a 9 youre better off just calling here with your monstrous amount of outs hes unlikely to fold any hand in his range and you may have as many as ten outs if the turn is lets say an A this is a good spot to bluff if your opponent will b/f many of his pps we no longer have the odds to call because at this point all we can hope for is for villian to barrel again with pps lower than Ts if vililan is a true tag this pretty much means 99 but if we now turn our hand into a bluff by raising we may get him to laydown the best hand if his hand does not include an ace in it and if he 3bs given that we may get 1 or 2bets in on the river we now have the odds to call drawing to our gutshot just make sure if you had an A in this spot youd routinely play it the same way or anytime you raise this spot it looks like a bluff we can easily have an ace here ourselves given our preflop raise and our flop peel so our TAGgish opponent will be hardpressed to call with anything less than an ace just be sure to not attempt bluffs against those who wont fold hope this helps gl |
#9
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Re: Optimum bluffing frequency question
write poetry much? I think there was a haiku in there.
Good thoughts though, I'll run some numbers while I'm working and see if I can't devise some hard data from it. |
#10
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Re: Optimum bluffing frequency question
[ QUOTE ]
write poetry much? I think there was a haiku in there. Good thoughts though, I'll run some numbers while I'm working and see if I can't devise some hard data from it. [/ QUOTE ] lol yes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] you have no idea how often i get that |
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