Bankroll question re: moving up to 50NL

PokerFun007 · #1 10-07-2007, 01:52 PM

I've played 25nl for over 20K hands at over 6.0 ptbb/100 hands. I'm at $800 in my bankroll. Does it make sense to move up to 50NL now and if my bankroll goes down to $500 then I can move down to 25NL and rebuild?

Thanks, and if you could throw some encouragement and good luck my way, that'd be great!

Dennisa · #2 10-07-2007, 01:55 PM

20K hands is not enough. You can easily be running very hot. Also I would want 1000-1250 before making the move.

I tried moving back up yesterday. Two hands, AK vs AQ with and Ace on the flop and queen on the river. Next hand had some remaining, got AK raised all in and was up against AA. Seems to always happen when I try to move up.

Good Luck,

Damntra · #3 10-07-2007, 09:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
20K hands is not enough. You can easily be running very hot. Also I would want 1000-1250 before making the move.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands would be enough to make an accurate statistical determination, in your opinion?

Belok · #4 10-07-2007, 10:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
20K hands is not enough. You can easily be running very hot. Also I would want 1000-1250 before making the move.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands would be enough to make an accurate statistical determination, in your opinion?

[/ QUOTE ]
50k hands is widely accepted.

too eazy · #5 10-07-2007, 10:29 PM

i moved up at 1.25k i believe.

Damntra · #6 10-07-2007, 10:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
20K hands is not enough. You can easily be running very hot. Also I would want 1000-1250 before making the move.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands would be enough to make an accurate statistical determination, in your opinion?

[/ QUOTE ]
50k hands is widely accepted.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm... at around a hand a minute, that's 60 hands in an hour. If you 12 table, that's around 700 hands an hour so that would take around 70 hours.

Very ignorant question I'm about to ask, but why is that considered the standard. 20k hands would be around 30 hours of 12 tabling and that seems to be a significant amount too, no?

five4suited · #7 10-08-2007, 12:38 AM

Statistical variance. Anything can happen over 20,000 hands, and often will.

Dennisa · #8 10-08-2007, 11:00 AM

30 Hours of poker is less than 1 week. I would suggest 1 months play and at least 50K hands.

Fiasco · #9 10-08-2007, 09:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
20K hands is not enough. You can easily be running very hot. Also I would want 1000-1250 before making the move.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands would be enough to make an accurate statistical determination, in your opinion?

[/ QUOTE ]
50k hands is widely accepted.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh, if only there were some sort of mathematical way to determine what constitutes a sufficient sample size. That would be so great if we didnt just have to pull random arbitrary numbers like 50k hands out of our asses and we could factor in winrate and standard deviation.

Oh wait, we have those things. So why do I keep seeing posts about how anything less than one billion hands is probably short term luck?

Anyway OP, I plugged your numbers into a calculator using a SD of 33 ptbb/100 which is roughly what most of the players in this forum were doing (if yours is significantly higher then your variance may be a bit higher) and I found that your projected winrate is 1.43 ptbb/100 to 10.57 ptbb/100 @ the 95% confidence interval.

In other words, congrats, youre a winning player. Go ahead and move up.

PokerFun007 · #10 10-08-2007, 10:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
20K hands is not enough. You can easily be running very hot. Also I would want 1000-1250 before making the move.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands would be enough to make an accurate statistical determination, in your opinion?

[/ QUOTE ]
50k hands is widely accepted.

[/ QUOTE ]

oh, if only there were some sort of mathematical way to determine what constitutes a sufficient sample size. That would be so great if we didnt just have to pull random arbitrary numbers like 50k hands out of our asses and we could factor in winrate and standard deviation.

Oh wait, we have those things. So why do I keep seeing posts about how anything less than one billion hands is probably short term luck?

Anyway OP, I plugged your numbers into a calculator using a SD of 33 ptbb/100 which is roughly what most of the players in this forum were doing (if yours is significantly higher then your variance may be a bit higher) and I found that your projected winrate is 1.43 ptbb/100 to 10.57 ptbb/100 @ the 95% confidence interval.

In other words, congrats, youre a winning player. Go ahead and move up.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are a stud! Thank you for doing this work for me!

I'm trying to become less results oriented as I'm realizing that the swings in NL are CRAZY!!! So, making a plan like this and sticking with it is important to me. I'm planning on taking a shot when I'm feeling optimal and good tables and still grinding out 25nl for insurance.

The bummer of this is that I was doing 25nl last night and quickly lost two buy ins to bad beats. Oh well, chalk it up to variance, dust off, re-buy, and continue.