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#1
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$50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...
No real reads on the villain but he is 17/2/1.6 over some 80 hands...
Absolute Poker No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 6 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $104.85 UTG+1: $60.70 CO: $94.35 Button: $77.85 SB: $71.22 Hero: $50 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3</font>, CO calls, SB folds. Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($6.5, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $27.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $47</font>, CO calls. Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($100.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $100.5) River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($100.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $100.5) Results: Final pot: $100.5 |
#2
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Re: $50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...
Looks good.
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#3
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Re: $50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...
i thought it was standard though I don't expect your pair outs to ever be good so maybe it is better to just fold [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#4
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Re: $50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...
[ QUOTE ]
i thought it was standard though I don't expect your pair outs to ever be good so maybe it is better to just fold [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] same here |
#5
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Re: $50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...
im gonna attempt my 1st ever poker stove, be patient.
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#6
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Re: $50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...
Let's make some assumptions. One is that you have no fold equity with your bet. Another is that a pair won't take down the pot.
If these are true, you're all-in is betting $42 to win $100.5, so you only need to win the pot 1/(100.5/42), or 41.8% of the time to make this a good play. You've got lots of outs, nine clubs, and 3 queens (excluding Qc which is already counted), so that's 12 outs twice out of 47 remaining cards. You'll hit one of these outs 43.8% of the time. You may in fact have a few less outs here, since one of your Q outs may be dead if he has a straight. You'll also have a lower chance to win if he has a set, where you make your hand and lose to the boat. I guess the point is that I think this is really close, and neither play is bad. |
#7
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Re: $50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
94,050 games 0.005 secs 18,810,000 games/sec Board: Jc 8c Ts Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 47.426% 47.07% 00.36% 44269 335.00 { AcKc } Hand 1: 52.574% 52.22% 00.36% 49111 335.00 { JJ-88, AJs, KJs, QJs, Q9s, J8s, T8s, 97s, AJo, KJo, QJo, Q9o, J8o, T8o, 97o } Thats not including any stone cold bluffs (i realize these are unlikely but that count for some % of the time) or smaller FDs. PS: someboday tell me if I screwed this up with the sooted/offsoot thing. |
#8
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Re: $50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...
op,
literally no other way to play it. |
#9
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Re: $50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...
SO $50 effective stacks. Lets assume that villain just pushes AI here instead of a big raise bc hes committing himself anyways. He's got $47 left after pf with your $5 bet and the pot already ($6.5). So when it gets back to you the pot is $58.5 with $42 left for you to call.
58/42=1.39 or 58.16% (=1.39/2.39) pot equity. SO this means its a clear +EV call we're about 1:1 against his range (assuming I did it right) and we're getting 1.4:1 pot odds. |
#10
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Re: $50NL : AKs flops big draw but faces heat...
I don't think anyone can really criticize getting in here. I hate giving action to nits and his big raise seems like he's trying to protect against all the draws. I'd say you likely have 11 outs. If you don't mind variance shove it in. You will probably tilt him if you win.
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