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#1
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NL 25 Over + nut flush? Call or fold??
Villians is 19/16 2.75 over 143 hands. Seems decent TAG.
Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter MP: $71.50 CO: $25 BTN: $25 Hero (SB): $50.25 BB: $23.90 UTG: $10.65 Pre-Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB) 3 folds, BTN raises to $0.85, Hero calls $0.75, BB folds Flop: ($1.95) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) Hero checks, BTN bets $1.25, Hero raises to $6, BTN raises to $24.15 and is All-In Call or fold? Play any differently?? Maybe 3 bet pf...? |
#2
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Re: NL 25 Over + nut flush? Call or fold??
RR PF (fold to 4-bet) and get it in on Flop, never call AT OOP. As played what do you think is his range - I think he will do this with JJ+, do the Pokerstove thing:
Board: Js 9s 2h Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 41.768% 41.77% 00.00% 7443 0.00 { AsTs } Hand 1: 58.232% 58.23% 00.00% 10377 0.00 { JJ+ } maybe you can add 22 and 99 too - so your equity decreases |
#3
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Re: NL 25 Over + nut flush? Call or fold??
3-bet or call is fine pf.
You get more value at these stakes from the implied odds, although flush draws are always tougher to get paid on, but it's going to be less variance and slightly higher EV to check/call, and possibly lead the turn. Your other more aggressive option is to lead, and push to a re-raise. The problem is that you have almost no fold equity at these stakes, so if you're called in those spots, you'll likely be flipping, or a slight dog. So for those reasons I'd prefer the less aggressive line. |
#4
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Re: NL 25 Over + nut flush? Call or fold??
I 3bet pf and raise a little less on flop (±4.5), followed by a fold to his push...
Hands I think he's doing this with: Board: 2s 9s Jd Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 37.315% 37.33% 00.00% 764672 0.00 { AsTs } Hand 1: 62.686% 62.71% 00.00% 1284665 0.00 { JJ+, 99, 22, AJs, J9s, AJo, J9o } |
#5
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Re: NL 25 Over + nut flush? Call or fold??
Depending on how often he raises his button and calls with marginal hands, I'd probably bump this to like 3.5, but flat-calling is fine as well.
I hate the c/r because it essentially turns our hand into a bluff and we can't call a push. I think a c/c is the best play followed by either lead/call or lead/3bet (depending on what he reads a donk bet as. if he read donk bet as weakness, 3 bet; If he reads it as strength, call). |
#6
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Re: NL 25 Over + nut flush? Call or fold??
Depends on how much he steals if you 3bet here. But as played you will have to fold.
Board: 2s Jd 9s Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 52.612% 52.38% 00.23% 27484 121.50 { AsTs } Hand 1: 47.388% 47.16% 00.23% 24743 121.50 { JJ, 99, 22, AJs, KsJs, QsJs, QTs, J9s, T8s, AJo, QTo, J9o, T8o } |
#7
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Re: NL 25 Over + nut flush? Call or fold??
TAGs likes to raise a donkbet at a flop like this very thin imho.
Someone likes b/3b? |
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