pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]

[thedustbustr]

Hi guys,

my green line in pokerev sucks which means im not winning very much without seeing showdown. which makes sense, because ive been nitting it up these days, trying to avoid marginal spots, etc. but im not winning nearly as much as I used to, which is obv partly because of the games, but supposedly im a better player now too. a lot of it is surely variance, but... i wonder if its because im leaving lots of money on the table by checking down too much?

I'd really like to see a bunch of these graphs from a variety of different styles, I think there's a lot to be learned from them that is not really discussable by a single hand in a vaccuum, but more applies to how we play in hand to hand tiny pots. stuff that is not hand oriented, but frequency oriented. PokerEV seems like a good analysis tool for this problem.

[carrotsnake]

[cs3]

where do we get this tool?

[thac]

whoa wtf cs

carrotsnake, not cs

[carrotsnake]

? wtf @ what ? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[nuggetz87]

is that graph the "run like god + play like god"?

[BobboFitos]

ive always maintained laggy play is the lower variance ride due to the major concept that pots won w/o showdown escape variance, ie. getting money into the pot which sees a showdown means the hot and cold ness factor predicates 'luck'. take it for what it's worth.

[gball]

[ QUOTE ]
ive always maintained laggy play is the lower variance ride due to the major concept that pots won w/o showdown escape variance, ie. getting money into the pot which sees a showdown means the hot and cold ness factor predicates 'luck'. take it for what it's worth.

[/ QUOTE ]

OTOH, when playing LAG and running bad could mean that people happen to hold/catch hands they won't surrender to your aggression? Even more variance ?)

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ive always maintained laggy play is the lower variance ride due to the major concept that pots won w/o showdown escape variance, ie. getting money into the pot which sees a showdown means the hot and cold ness factor predicates 'luck'. take it for what it's worth.

[/ QUOTE ]

OTOH, when playing LAG and running bad could mean that people happen to hold/catch hands they won't surrender to your aggression? Even more variance ?)

[/ QUOTE ]\
no, it means you're losing at a more consistant rate.

the hypothetical i throw out is basically... a nit plays far fewer hands then a lag, GIVEN SAME WIN RATE, if a nit "runs bad" it takes far longer to even this out, given they have far fewer opportunities to capitilize on their expected win rate. ie, if over 1k hands they play 10% (or 100 hands) and "run bad," it will take net 300 hands (or 3k) to "even this streak," vs someone playing 3x the hands typically will have fewer swings.

there is alot more i have to say on this but it's probably wasted.

[RiverFenix]

[ QUOTE ]

there is alot more i have to say on this but it's probably wasted.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'd pay $ for you to add more thoughts on LAG stuff. Is that part of your coaching talking about LAG theory?