Which Team Would Have the Best Chance to Beat Ohio State?

[Iplayboard]

Game would be played on January 8 in Glendale, AZ.

[DemonDeac]

Other

WAKE FOREST!!







j/k. Michigan easily.

[LionelHutz00]

UCLA, obv.

[CardSharpCook]

Awesome that everyone believes Michigan is the 2nd best team and yet the other thread had everyone clamouring for Florida to be in the title game. As I write this, Florida has 0 votes, Michigan 16.

[MEbenhoe]

Everyone not voting for LSU is wrong. Now that that is out of the way, cue Michigan fans to start flaming every team that is not Michigan.

[capone0]

Whats with all the love for the 2 loss LSU team? Including a 13 point loss to Florida on the road.

[bernie]

'91 Huskies.

b

[MyTurn2Raise]

this thread, obviously, makes me vomit

Michigan is at best 25% to beat Ohio State on a nuetral field and that is a reach

I don't know how many ways to state this:
Ohio State thoroughly owned the first match-up between the two teams and would be expected to again.
I'm not sure what you guys look at when watching a football game, but looking at the final score is the equivalent to results-oriented bs thinking in playing poker.
tOSU did whatever it wanted, whenever it wanted with the ball.
Ohio State had 503 yards on 70 offensive plays. That is what, 7.2 ypp or so.
Michigan had a very respectable 397 yards on 65 plays...6.1 ypp.
That is over a full yard per play difference. Yards per play is the best predictor of points scored by any team. A one yard per play difference works out to roughly 8 points difference. Here, you have over a 9 points difference between the teams.

Then, you get into the turnovers. Turnovers appear to be dumb luck. Often, viewing a game, they are just that. However, there are precursors and situations that do force a high number of turnovers. It's not based on previous turnovers in a game. Turnovers in one game are a terrible predictor of turnovers in another. There are a few things that are much better. They are tackles for loss per play run and the number of plays run in 3rd and 8 or longer situations. In both of those, Ohio State was expected to have an edge and did indeed have the edge in the game.

Basically, the line going in was Ohio State -7. Everything that happened on the field suggested that Michigan was outplayed by more than 7 points...much closer to 12-15 range. It was an outlier final score for Michigan to only lose by 3 points. Giving my rudimentary range of outcomes (my handicapping tools aren't that refined yet), it was a top 20% outcome for Michigan.
Even allowing for a nuetral field instead of at Ohio State, there is no way any smart money should get anywhere near the Wolverines at a 7 point spread.
Michigan has little chance.

[MyTurn2Raise]

now, the 2nd part

LSU compared to Michigan

I don't know how to state it any clearer, but LSU is a better team than Michigan and would be favored over them on a nuetral field with an efficient market.

lets go position by position

QB: Jamarcus Russell (Matt Flynn) v Chad Henne
Henne is a game manager at best. Though he has slowly improved throughout his career, he is not a QB that will lead Michigan to any victories. Henne struggles to make plays and to move along in his progressions. He often fixes in on a target. He has gotten better about not forcing the ball to that target for interceptions, but he still is not a guy who is going to make a big play for the team. Russell can make the big play, but is also a risk-taker who will make the big play for the other team. He does a below average job at presnap reads, but gets through progressions quick, has a strong arm, and can create on his own. He isn't a scrambler, but can pull off the big run when needed. Matt Flynn is a capable back-up, who, IMO, is a better version of Chad Henne.

edge: Big LSU

[ridonkulous]

Notre Dame would destroy OSU.