bottom two against rocky

[mike l.]

rocky's a bellagio regular who has very recently moved to oceans 11, some of you know him. i got in this spot against him a couple hours ago in a decent 4-5 handed 40 game. we were 3 handed when this hand went down.

rocky openraised on the button, i called in the bb w/ Jd9d.

the flop came QcJc9h. i checkraised, he 3 bet, and i called.

the turn was the Ac. i bet, he sort of sighed and was noticeably distraught but not in the fake acting tell sort of way but in a way that i read as genuine given ways he as been acting at the table and in hands previously. he called.

the river was the 7h. i check, he bets, i ...?

[AragornX151]

Call. You can't fold bottom two here given odds, though it feels like he has a bigger two pair than you or a set, and raising isn't really an option, not much out there that you beat that he'd call a raise with.

[brettbrettr]

Why not just bet the river and save yourself this spot?

One answer would be you knew you were beat and planned on folding. But if you're going to call, bet.

[27offsooot]

well, ur turn bet is very strong on this board and it should make him think that u're trying to bet/ 3 bet w/ a flush. So I don't think he will raise most of his range, a good deal of which beats u on that board. On the river, he has to change his range for u and consider that u were taking a donk-fold line on the turn and now he can value bet. I don't think he bets a one pair hand on the river here, b/c i'm not sure that he thinks u will call with worse often and could be getting tricky after missing the turn bet-3-bet.

So i don't think u win this hand much given the action when u call. Maybe u could c/r bluff, but my guess is that u have enough retarded history with each other short-handed that he'll make a wtf call.

I think i would have bet the river b/c u're in much better shape when u put the bet in than when u have to call.

But in the end, i probably would convince myself that he has AxTc and call.

BTW, for those that don't know rocky, can u describe him. IIRC from a post of urs a while back, he was over aggro, but a reasonable hand reader.

[private joker]

Call the river, yo. You flopped 2 pair heads up in a 3-handed game. Your line from the flop on should involve anything except folding. Ever. And the river seems closer to a checkraise than a check-fold. But I wouldn't checkraise it. I'd just bet it out or check-call.

[DosXX]

Hey all first post. I agree the river is more of a bet here than c/c, but certainly if we get raised we are cooked, right?

Is this a bet/fold on the river?

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey all first post. I agree the river is more of a bet here than c/c, but certainly if we get raised we are cooked, right?

Is this a bet/fold on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Welcome. Yes if you bet river I'd bet/fold. Live players are generally not tricky enough to turn a one pair hand into a bluff raise here.

Mike, dunno what everyone is saying here, it has to be close to a checkraise for value. I never fold so screw that silly idea. We have the "value bluff" which is sometimes called the "two way bet", how about the "two way checkraise value bluff" ? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]

Mike, dunno what everyone is saying here, it has to be close to a checkraise for value. I never fold so screw that silly idea. We have the "value bluff" which is sometimes called the "two way bet", how about the "two way checkraise value bluff" ? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

You may very well be right that raising > call > fold, but can u please explain value-bluff to me?

If we assign Rocky some range, for the sake of argument, T9-AQ, then Rocky will pick a certain threshold at which to fold all worse hands and call all better ones. Depending on this threshold, the c/r will act as either a bluff or for value given our hand value and the size of the pot. For example, if he folds everything, then it's as a bluff; if he calls everything within this range, then it's for value. And there's some hand within this range that his decision is EV = 0, and it will be closer to the bottom of his hand range b/c he'll be getting good odds. I'm sure u understand this, but just wanted to spell out my own thinking.

Thus, the question I have is, how can something work as both a bluff and value bet? It's not as if he will fold AQ, but now call with T9, or whatever. I guess this term is used when we don't really know where his threshold for folding/ calling is and it could be for value or as a bluff. But then, isn't that the case for most hands.

BTW, again, u are a much better player and have much more experience in these games, so what sort of range do u assign Rocky? I would extend out his range to even include sets a certain percent of the time, given that Mike's turn bet looks ultra scary. But then again, this is 3 handed, and no history is given, so i don't know.

[drbk2]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hey all first post. I agree the river is more of a bet here than c/c, but certainly if we get raised we are cooked, right?

Is this a bet/fold on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Welcome. Yes if you bet river I'd bet/fold. Live players are generally not tricky enough to turn a one pair hand into a bluff raise here.

Mike, dunno what everyone is saying here, it has to be close to a checkraise for value. I never fold so screw that silly idea. We have the "value bluff" which is sometimes called the "two way bet", how about the "two way checkraise value bluff" ? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Man the checkraise here would be awesome. Just thinking about being in villain's spot if I got checkraised on the river is getting me to shake my head. You would definitely confuse him enough to fold out a better two pair or to call you with something worse than your hand.

[mike l.]

honestly i dont see him ever folding a better hand to a c/r by me.