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#1
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this one time i flopped a combo draw
live LA casino 5/5NL 500 effective stacks. SB is a station pre but folds on missed flops, BB just sat prob not getting out of line.
folded around to hero on button with 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Hero raises to 20, SB and BB call. Flop A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB c, BB c, hero cbet 45. SB folds, BB raises to 140. Villain has another 200 behind. I am approx. 85% sure he has better than 1 pair, possibly AQ. Can I fold this? What is more +EV, assuming he calls my push with AQ, AJ,and sets. A fold or push? |
#2
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Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
if ur read is that he has better than 1 pair all the time then my guess is that a fold is ok (i cant do the math sorry), altho i would always show this hand down to help my image since it is such a marginal spot
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#3
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Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
i kinda felt the same way and think it is close either fold or push, my guess is push is slightly more ev and good image producer, downside is a bit of variance...
anyone fold this? i mean this was a gross spot with stack sizes, getting the flop we hoped for |
#4
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Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
a push is the only option if you play the hand my guess is it might be be slightly -ev but i dont really know like i said earlier just a hunch, however the numbers work out in this marginal spot i think shoving and and flipping your cards over and yelling dealer 1 time is certainly +ev longterm at the table because casino players' heads explode when they see people get it in like this
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#5
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Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
he doesnt have AA, maybe JJ but eh to that...and you have a 4, which leaves AJ or you are ahead
given this analysis + the dead money i shove...its not bad either way and when im kinda impartial EV wise i go aggressive |
#6
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Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
If your not getting it all in here you have to ask yourself why you are playing the hand to start with , as this is just the flop you wanted
Just shove it |
#7
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Re: this one time i flopped a combo draw
[ QUOTE ]
a push is the only option if you play the hand my guess is it might be be slightly -ev but i dont really know like i said earlier just a hunch, however the numbers work out in this marginal spot i think shoving and and flipping your cards over and yelling dealer 1 time is certainly +ev longterm at the table because casino players' heads explode when they see people get it in like this [/ QUOTE ] agreed, the guy seemed kinda of shocked that I went allin on "just a draw" (sorry Norman Chad). He had AJ which everyone has agreed was the most likely. I had decent equity (40%) and didnt really consider the image thing at the time but do agree it did pay off for me later on in the session. |
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