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value raise non-nut flush?
I think you'll see where I'm going with this. I'm really only concerned with the river.
The flush draw in seat 5 is obviously drawing to a loser, and if he gets there I want him to pay off. When the 2 seat fires on the river, I really wish I knew where the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] was. Is the best play to call and hope seat 5 made his payoff flush for an overcall (or preferably a raise), or raise myself, opening myself up to a three-bet or adding value for a better spade flush? Just calling seems like I'm leaving money on the table, but what else can the 2-seat have but a flush here, and with my board he shouldn't be drawing to a flush without the Ace. But if that's the case, his call on Fifth is beyond fishy and into psychedelic unless he has specifically A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the hole. 7 Card Stud High ($3/$6), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $1 (converter) 3rd Street - (1.17 SB) Seat 1: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___folds Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___brings-in Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___calls Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___calls Seat 5: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___calls Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___calls Seat 8: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___folds 4th Street - (2.83 SB) Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___checks ___calls Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___checks ___calls Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___bets Seat 5: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___calls Seat 7: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___checks ___folds 5th Street - (3.42 BB) Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___calls Seat 3: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___checks ___folds Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ___bets Seat 5: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___calls 6th Street - (6.42 BB) Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ___checks ___calls Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___bets Seat 5: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ___calls River - (9.42 BB) Seat 2: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx ___bets Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ___??? Seat 5: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] xx ___ |
#2
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Re: value raise non-nut flush?
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that seat 2 probably sucks at poker. He's probably not folding to your raise, and he probably has a worse hand than yours. The guy behind you is probably drawing to a flush. He won't fold if he makes it, and probably won't call if he doesn't. He cannot beat you (but he could tie you, which would be freaky). I can't think of a reason for you not to raise on the river.
BTW, with two hearts out, third's a little dubious, but I limp in and hope for the best myself. |
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