3/6 NL Turn Play - Big turn bet

[D104]

Opponent is a Party regular at this level, seems solid, only real read is that he overplays overpairs as the raiser, so its good to trap him. $600 effective stacks.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero raises to $21, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]($66, 3 players)
BB bets $22, Hero raises to $100, Button folds, BB calls.

Turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($266, 2 players)
BB bets $255, Hero ????.

D

[ilikeaces86_]

AI

[DJ Sensei]

I'm having trouble putting villain on a hand here, but I'm thinking something like 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Weak leads the flop with a combo draw, calls your raise to chase it down, hits it. Then he PSB's the turn hoping you have a big heart with your AA or AK or KK and can't let go of it.

Or, he could have AK with one heart, or KQ with one heart, or something like that...

Pretty tough decision, but the weak flop lead-call makes me think he's on a flush here more often than not... I'd call it a very tough fold. (wouldnt fault you for a call though, I'd have trouble folding it in 25 seconds.)

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]

Pretty tough decision, but the weak flop lead-call makes me think he's on a flush here more often than not... I'd call it a very tough fold. (wouldnt fault you for an all in though, I'd have trouble folding it in 25 seconds.)

[/ QUOTE ]

[luckychewy]

The only reason to fold here is that the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is MIA. Still it makes it very hard, since if he has a lower set you're going to kick yourself. I'd like to say a fold here is +EV but it's extremely hard to actually release here.

EDIT: The even harder thing is that you have 9-10 clean outs assuming he has a flush without the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[DJ Sensei]

If villain has a lower set, he played it TERRIBLY.

And I don't know how I feel about the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] being out.
-On the one hand, it makes K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] possible in his range. (he's pretty likely to play the flop like this with KhXh)
-On the other hand, it makes K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Xx possible too. And he could semibluff PSB this turn with KhXx because he has picked up some outs (but he wouldnt mind a fold).

[luckychewy]

I doubt he's making this play with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Xx simply because he knows you don't have the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and will only expect you to continue with the nut flush/set or something very strong. That is an extremely high level of play and quite frankly nothing I think you will see at these levels. Why would he call flop with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Xx, simply to semi-bluff turn? I don't buy that. He has a lower set, 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]/J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or a poorly played nut flush IMO. Given this range, you are behind to 3/4 of them, but you still have clean outs which makes it so hard to fold.

[ QUOTE ]
If villain has a lower set, he played it TERRIBLY.

[/ QUOTE ]
Does his turn bet not look like a bet that wants to end the pot right now though?

All this being said, it still makes it so hard to fold, but if there was ever a time to fold top set it's now.

[raptor517]

ummm.. instashove? u could very well be ahead if not u got 10 outs ship it. holla

[AllIn3High]

Shove it like it's hot.

[D104]

Assuming that this guy either has a smaller set or a flush -in order to make a shove correct he would have to have the set roughly 23% of the time for me to break even. (By my math, someone pls correct if wrong). Does he really have the smaller set that often? His line just looks like a flush to me - the 1/3 pot bet to be priced in exactly at 4:1, the call, then the lead again when the flush hits. A set is possible, but for all those shove advocates - do you really think you see a hand other than a flush here more than 23% of the time?

Also, I think his pure bluff % is 0 here. This game was playing tight and I have position. Further, ppl just dont take this line as a bluff, or at least in my experience.

D