Stars 320 Late Blinds Battle

[uclabruinz]

28 left. Current payout is $1.2k and winner gets $48k. I built a big stack approaching the ITM bubble and have been 2-5 ever since but lately have been totally card dead and have fallen to about 20/28. I have been playing very tight for about 5 orbits, but was pretty aggro before that. Villain probably thinks I am tight.

Villain plays loose and pokerdb stats are meh. He had a big stack and recently lost half of it. I thought he would tilt off the rest, but has played tight for two orbits or so. Definitely capable of making loose, big moves. Kind of wreckless.

Assume we have a significant ability edge on most of the field. There is one very good player at our table and one pretty good, and the rest are unknown or average at best. Keep in mind the levels are 20 minutes, antes are small, and structure is pretty slow (there are extra levels).

Level XV (1000/2000)
9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: AceSpades11 (59038 in chips)
Seat 2: vovo_leo (106504 in chips)
Seat 3: Gava (38749 in chips)
Seat 4: plattsburgh (45214 in chips)
Seat 5: bigdogpckt5s (89913 in chips)
Seat 7: uclabruinz (48142 in chips)
Seat 8: hasminejerry (59643 in chips)
Seat 9: PFINO (44401 in chips)
uclabruinz: posts small blind 1000
hasminejerry: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to uclabruinz [Kd Jd]
folds to us in SB

Give me your move and your plan. Discuss variables you are taking into account in your decision.

[seke2]

Looks like this is going to be an interestin hand.

So, my default play here is to raise to 2.5x-3x BB, whatever has been my normal raise. I'm raising more for value than for a steal here, and really don't hate getting called.

Factors:
Villain seems to be tightening up on a smaller stack, so maybe he's smart enough to know he should be tighter now, and is more likely to fold now that he doesn't have the chips to afford to take some more gambles.

Obviously he could resteal here, and I think we're folding to a push, so a smaller raise is probably more my line because I want to minimize my risk. But our stack size leaves us pretty exploitable to a resteal.

Being OOP if called is a concern, but, "worst case" even if we make it 5k preflop, get called, cbet ~7k more on the flop, and end up having to fold to a raise, we still have almost 20 BB's left, which isn't that bad and gives us plenty of room to recover.

I hate open-limping against a guy who has tightened up, so I can't make an argument for that, and folding is obviously out the window.

So I'm making my standard raise here, a bit on the smaller side, probably right around 5k. I am probably folding to anything bigger than a minraise, if he minraises I am probably about 80/20 call/3bet.

I highlighted interesting points in bold.

MrTimCaum: i'm usually raising
MrTimCaum: 7k
MrTimCaum: sometimes i'll limp/call or limp/rr
MrTimCaum: never limp fold though
KramerTM: so when you limp/call.. youre playing it conservaitely, where youll fold the flop 65% of the time, and CR all-in when you connect?
MrTimCaum: i dont think i'm crai 100% of the time when i hit
MrTimCaum: sometimes i'll just check call and push a safe turn or crai then
KramerTM: ah
MrTimCaum: yeah sometimes i'll bet/call and push turn or bet/3bet all in
MrTimCaum: i vary my play A LOT in blind vs blind play
MrTimCaum: i pretty much keep every line as an option
KramerTM: ok.. next part of the question
KramerTM: you raise to 8K, and he INSTA-shoves
MrTimCaum: yeesh
MrTimCaum: is this a money bubble at 28?
KramerTM: nope.. the money bubble was at 30
KramerTM: next one at 18
MrTimCaum: i dunno
MrTimCaum: if i feel he's tilty from losing a bunch of chips i'll probably call but be sick about it
MrTimCaum: i think it'd be a huge mistake to raise and then fold to a jam
MrTimCaum: if you're going to raise/fold then just limp/call or limp/rr
KramerTM: right, i agree
KramerTM: especially if you know hes a LAG
MrTimCaum: or just raise smaller
KramerTM: thats a good point
MrTimCaum: because if you're going to raise fold, what's the difference between raising 6k and 8k?
KramerTM: if anything, he might jam more often to the bigger PF raise

[TakenItEasy]

This seems like a standard raise and c-bet most flops.

Your Q is low but your against only a slightly larger stack and your M is still ok. His lower middle stack size is the right size to attack since I find the middle stacks the most obligated to play their hands.

What is the next price break and for how much? Middle stacks are sometimes even more handcuffed by any bubbles.

Because of this fact I would fold to a reraise inspite of the fact that he was making moves with a larger stack before. He seems to have shifted gears when he was cut in half. If he made the reraise with a big stack, I would push.

[grafyx]

I was sweating the last few orbits and had the same read.

Against a lot of bb players, I would raise this hand. The reason I would complete here is that I think he is going to shove over our raise with a wide range that includes a lot of worse hands. Since I hate raise/folding for 20% of our stack and I don't want to call a shove and get 25bbs in preflop, I'd rather limp and call a raise of up to 4x from villian with a plan to felt any pair or decent draw. Because villian is so aggro, if we flop a pair I think we can get him to bluff of a lot of chips post flop.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]

The reason I would complete here is that I think he is going to shove over our raise with a wide range that includes a lot of worse hands. Since I hate raise/folding for 20% of our stack and I don't want to call a shove and get 25bbs in preflop, I'd rather limp and call a raise of up to 4x from villian with a plan to felt any pair or decent draw. Because villian is so aggro, if we flop a pair I think we can get him to bluff of a lot of chips post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd probably limp call, in a vacuum, more than most here anyway.

[Body Man D]

From description of Villian being reckless, I would just complete here. If villian makes a standard raise I would be willing to call and see a flop with the intention of check folding if I miss or check raising if I hit.

I don't like raising in this spot to aggro BB. I hate calling off my stack when you can be behind or dominated by a lot of hands like a,x any pair etc.

Maybe I'm just weak tight from busting out late in 3 or 4 tourney's recently by overvaluing my cards in blind battles??? Once in a while the BB can have a hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Spidar]

I like Seke's line here. I'd also add that raising into an agrro like Villian represents a strong hand and, if like you've said, he's changed gears, you have a good chance of picking up his BB. In any event, you hold a strong HU hand.

[seke2]

I don't mind those going for limp/rr either. I guess I'm putting more stress on the Villain's adjustment in style to tighter once he lost chips as opposed to the fact that he was playing aggressively earlier when he did have chips. So I'm reading him as playing closer to TAG than LAG at the moment.

[ginzorella]

First Off, I have played Sit N Gos with the villain, and will gladly confirm hes a loose nutcase, without much regard for chips / money.. does that change late in a 300, might, but I will go ahead with the maniac aggressive label for him.

When playing a crazy aggressive player, most of them would view a standard raise by SB here as a steal i think, and would push over top with Any Ace, Any pair, maybe K10 - KQ. The maniac isnt looking to play post flop and try to read a hand.

That being said... I DO NOT like to raise here.
Why?

Because limping into a maniac does 2 things in my mind
1 - It tells the maniac we are being tricky, and might actually have a big hand.
2 - Limping keeps us non committed and gives us an easy fold if he pushes.. in terms of losing very little, no pot odds considerations

Based on this assumption.. we now have 4 scenarios..
1 - We limp, he raises 4-8k more. We can now push over top if desired, and the limp can give him thoughts we trapped him, making our hand appear stronger than it is and giving us more Fold Equity. Most times he folds, some calls for a race, and yes we are dominated sometimes if he happened to catch a monster

2 - We limp, he raises 4-8k more. We FOLD.. why are you guys saying dont ever limp fold? seriously, do you think it matters that much to tell the table you wanted to see a cheap flop? and if people think you fold to a resteal shove becuase of this.. we take advantage of that, as they would be doing it to you with lesser hands after this if your logic holds true about showing weakness

3. We limp, he Pushes, We Fold, no big deal

4. We limp, no raise.. we see a flop and have all options open with a better than average hand.. Chk raise.. Open bet.. etc.. And we are only 2k committed, NOT 6-8k. I dont see this as a bad option, easier decisions post flop when we are not heavily invested..

I think limping sets up a push play much better than raising and re popping, in terms of selling a big hand and Fold Equity. And its no crime to fold cheaply or see a flop against a maniac with a better than avg hand.

I really try to vary my play in these situations, but this would be my FIRST approach to the maniac in teh SB / BB battle... It would change each time around

thoughts....

ginzorella