100 rebuy bubble hand

[gboro]

villain's very first hand at the table and i don't recall playing with him before. we are both top 5-10 stacks with ~30 left and 27 paying. i have him covered but not by much. i'll be crippled if we play for stacks and i lose.



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t63397)
BB (t45349)
UTG (t30571)
UTG+1 (t24415)
MP1 (t16902)
Hero (t69765)
CO (t59745)
Button (t57233)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t4200</font>, CO calls t4200, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (t8925) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t6400</font>, CO calls t6400.

Turn: (t21725) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>



what do you guys like on the turn here?

if you are leading out how much are you betting?

if you check do you plan on check/calling or check/raising? (i'd put check/fold in here but lets get real we have a royal draw, weeeee)

if you check/call, what is your plan? (for a blank river, a spade, a ten?)

if it goes check/check, what is your plan for the river(blank, spade, ten)

if you check/raise are you shoving it all in? or are you making a smaller raise that looks like you may want value + leaves you with some chips to close your eyes and shove in on river

thanks for your input
gboro

[mikeJ]

Super easy c/c.

[ QUOTE ]
if you check/call, what is your plan? (for a blank turn, a spade, a ten?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you mean "for a blank river"?

If you check/call 14kish, pot will be 50k w/ effective stacks of 35k, prob c/f a blank, shove if you hit your T/spade.

If it goes check/check, very unlikely you get any more money out of him unless it's Ts and he has a Q. Just shove AI if you hit, cause he doesn't have like any holdings he would be bluffing with on river if you check. If it's a blank, prob c/f. But I think it often goes check/check on a blank river.

Btw, what's your line if he raises your flop bet to 18k?

[Bond18]

I also check call this turn. An unknown villain in the 100r is pretty rare no? If hes a known player we can probably give him a fairly small range but since 100r we figure better than ave.

On river i likely c/c a K/Q and lead a T/spade, possibly with a shove. Depending on the turn/river action i might fold to a river Q...sometimes.

If we c/call turn and river is total blank and we check and he fires strong i probably release.

If turn is check/check and river is a blank i'm undecided between check call or blocking bet, i'm not sure which is better.

[betgo]

I would either pot it, push, or go for the checkraise allin. If you are behind, you have so many outs.

[Bond18]

[ QUOTE ]
I would either pot it, push, or go for the checkraise allin. If you are behind, you have so many outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Heres my thing betgo. If we're behind, yea we have a lot of outs, but do we want to willingly put our stack in behind?

If we're ahead, hes going to fold to this kind of action without any chance of him trying to bluff the worst hand. Its not like our hand is that vulnerable to being drawn out so i don't see what playing this hand so strong/fast aims to accomplish.

[mikeJ]

The reason why I don't like c/c-ing on a blank river is that villain will be betting for one of two reasons..

(1) Value
(2) Bluff

You beat none of his vbetting hands from category (1). Except an occasional AQ if the river comes a K and he decides to make a bad vbet.

Well, how bout category (2)? What hands can he be bluffing w/ that get to the river, whether we check/call turn or it goes check/check turn? You beat a flop float and someone turning like QJ into a bluff and that's about it. I think it's very reasonable to assume that unknown people in MTTs aren't going to be turning QJ into a bluff on a J5KA2/J5KAK/J5KAQ board, they are going to check it down.

Conclusion: There are very few combos of blank rivers/villain's bets, that I think I can call profitably.

Leading turn is all kinds of bad, you rarely fold out better hands, you fold out pretty much all worse hands, and if your hand is ahead, your opponent usually has like 2 outs. If you lead and you get raised, you're pretty much ALWAYS behind, I don't really feel like looking @ the math to see if you're committed to call a shove, but when your bet gets action, you're going to be getting your money in behind. However, if you check and he bets, you will very often have close to the right direct pot odds to c/c and draw to a T/spade.

Leading turn is really bad, unless you have some sick metagame stuff you are working into your game.

[Crazy Cypriot]

i would check call in an attempt to keep the pot small, and value bet river if it was check check, or push if it was bet call on turn

[IWEARGOGGLES]

Gboro,

You didn't really try to figure out what your opponent's holding was. Isn't this one of those spots where it is perfect to flatcall KK/AA? Don't complete unknowns love to flatcall preflop with AK?

Just a thought...

[mic_check12]

[ QUOTE ]

Leading turn is all kinds of bad, you rarely fold out better hands, you fold out pretty much all worse hands, and if your hand is ahead, your opponent usually has like 2 outs. If you lead and you get raised, you're pretty much ALWAYS behind, I don't really feel like looking @ the math to see if you're committed to call a shove, but when your bet gets action, you're going to be getting your money in behind. However, if you check and he bets, you will very often have close to the right direct pot odds to c/c and draw to a T/spade.

Leading turn is really bad, unless you have some sick metagame stuff you are working into your game.

[/ QUOTE ]

MikeJ owned this thread. My knee jerk reaction was to shove but when you read this everything is correct IMO...

[stokken]

I really like MikeJ`s reasoning. One could possibly argue in favour of getting it all in on turn given a gigabet point of view. If one believes the possibilities and posessed capabilities in a doubled stack at this point justifies the risk of crippling.

Stokken