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#1
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Bottom set river decision
25/50 6max game
utg raises to $100, 4 callers including me on the button with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] FLOP ($500) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] checked around TURN: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] checks to CO who bets $380, I raise to $1350. He thinks a long time and calls. River ($3200) K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] He checks. Effective stacks behind on the river are $3600 |
#2
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Re: Bottom set river decision
check - his flush draw got there, straight draw missed, and I can't put him on any other hand that you beat that would call a large bet here (AK unlikely). if you do bet, I think you have to fold to c/r
99 or TT possible, but unlikely to call a decent size bet |
#3
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Re: Bottom set river decision
agree i'd check here
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#4
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Re: Bottom set river decision
i'd shove. if you can't get paid off by worse here you should bluff more. i think he's a 1 pair or 2 pair hand way way way more often than he's a flush.
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#5
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Re: Bottom set river decision
I think it's slightly relevant who the other callers were pre flop. If one is UTG+1 for instance, we can loosen CO's pre flop calling range here.
If it was CO, you, and the two blinds, his range to see the flop is a bit different. Maybe I'm being nitty? |
#6
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Re: Bottom set river decision
check. few/no worse hands will pay you here unless they think you're crazy, and he's never folding a better one (which he has a fair amount of the time i think)
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#7
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Re: Bottom set river decision
I've never checked a set on the river with a backdoor flush coming but this might be a time that I do.
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#8
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Re: Bottom set river decision
read on villian?
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#9
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Re: Bottom set river decision
[ QUOTE ]
I've never checked a set on the river with a backdoor flush coming but this might be a time that I do. [/ QUOTE ] |
#10
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Re: Bottom set river decision
[ QUOTE ]
i'd shove. if you can't get paid off by worse here you should bluff more. i think he's a 1 pair or 2 pair hand way way way more often than he's a flush. [/ QUOTE ] 2pair is possible, but I think 2pair would have reraised turn once it was HU b/c of the draws out there, or if he didn't raise turn, now fold the river b/c the flush came. Both of these scenarios would advocate checking. Plus remember how strong HEK looks here to villian. He raised the turn into 3 opponents (an important observation here I think), and is now betting again when the backdoor flush hits. I think villian is unlikely to call 2pair or lower here. So unless read on villian is that he will call light or that HEK has a laggy image, neither of which he mentioned, I still believe checking is the stronger play. |
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