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#1
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I have been doing some thought of late over which is the best way to play HUSNG's. As they are what i predominently play i want to make sure i am playing in the most profitable manner.
At the moment i have a monthly subscription with sharkscope and use explicit table selection where normally i will only play someone who has -10% ROI or worse, or have a much lower average stake than the game they are sitting in. This leads to me waiting around a bit more than most players i imagine. To compensate this i play a wider variety of limits, from 30's to 100's. However, i am rethinking this and considering that just sitting first and playing whoever sits down may be better as the drop in ROI may be compensated by the increase in hourly rate. I did some crude maths and worked out roughly that if you played the 50's and aimed for a $25 an hour hourly rate, then you would need the following win rates for the number of games you are playing: 5 games = 56% 6 games = 55% 7 games = 54.5% 8 games = 54% 9 games = 53.75% 10 games = 53.5% These percentages are for turbo games, you can add 1% to all these totals for regular's. Now i suppose the question i am asking is say i play 5 games per hour table selecting heavily will i be more likely to hit a 56% win rate than if i play say 8 games against randomly determined opponents and try and hit a 54% win rate. I have also included 27% rakeback which i get at fulltilt to these results if we want to attribute this to poker stars or to someone who doesnt have rakeback you can just add 0.5% to the totals as a rough rule of them. Any thoughts and suggestions and if anyone wants to berate my maths feel free. |
#2
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You're not going to enjoy the variance at most of those winrates, but it's nice that you're pointing out to everybody just how profitable these games are, even without great ROIs.
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#3
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Ok so variance will be bad so bankroll needs to be bigger to compensate. In your experience, is it better to play more games or only pick the good games?
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#4
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Better to play more games/tables at a buyin you can kill than grinding out swings at a higher buyin (usually makes more sense $/hour but definitely mentally).
A good mix of grinding a level you're good at and game selecting higher games when they are juicy is what I'm working on doing right now. |
#5
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At 5 games/hour at the $50+2.5 , winning 56% with a 5% rake (we'll include rakeback at the end) , you will earn 100*0.56 -52.5 = 3.5/sng . So 5 sng's per hour , you will earn $17.5/hour . With 27% rakeback , we add $3.375 which brings our hourly profits to $20.875.
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#6
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jay that is true, however, the figures i gave were for the turbo's $55, rather than the regular's $50. I did note that you add 1% for the regular's so, 57% at 50's should give roughly $25 an hour.
chicago, i like the idea of what you said, grinding one level but checking the higher limits for the juicy games when possible that is what i will try for a smallish sample of say 200-500 games. |
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