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#1
12-22-2006, 04:21 AM
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AK rivers two pair, gets raised
villian is 24/24 over 25 hands.
Ultimate Bet Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $3./$6 10 players Converter Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, 3 folds, MP1 calls. Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7.33SB, 2 players) MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls. Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.67BB, 2 players) MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls. River: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8.67BB, 2 players) MP1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls. Results: Final pot: 16.67BB Comments on all streets appreciated. I'm mostly concerned with the river though: my instinct was that he had AT/A8 or another ace and improved on the river, or maybe even KT, so I instantaneously three-bet. Is the threat of a set or straight here too frequent for a 3-town? 
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#3
12-22-2006, 07:53 AM
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Re: AK rivers two pair, gets raised
preflop: standard reraise and he just calls. Fine.
flop: he checks and you bet out that is standard. You do not reveal your hand by staying the aggressor. But his checkraise may indicate a strong hand or maybe KQ or KJ or K10 or a made set. I don't think he has KK as he would have capped preflop. he could try a semibluff too so I think it is okay to reraise as you do - also because you want to take control. turn: he checks and you probably have the best hand and you bet fine. River: If he has got QJ it is a pretty funny way to play the flop OOP. He could have a set though: 88 or TT but then he might have checkraised the turn instead of giving u a freecard. So if he is a straight player we can assume that he hasn't got a set or a straight, but many players and indeed an aggro type like him will perhaps try to make this flopmove with QJ. The flop is the only place where he play with QJ would diverge from "normal" play. Conclusion: A threebet on the river is a boarderline decision and hard to know what to do in a standard situation without many reads. If you don't like variance just call. You just win in these cases where he has got a lesser two pair than you. I don't think anyone with less would play that agressively against a preflopreraiser and this board. He has got a good hand but you have to call his checkraise.
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#4
12-22-2006, 11:59 AM
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Re: AK rivers two pair, gets raised
[ QUOTE ]
River: If he has got QJ it is a pretty funny way to play the flop OOP. [/ QUOTE ] What, you've never run into players whose standard ploy is to checkraise the flop with any flush draw or OESD?
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#6
12-22-2006, 12:06 PM
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Re: AK rivers two pair, gets raised
I think this is fine. Given that he didn't pop you on the turn it seems rather unlikely that this is a set. On the river you are either up against a worse 2 pair or QJ, so at this point it becomes read dependant for me. With only 25 hands on the villain I think you played this fine. Just throw up in your mouth a little and call when you get capped.
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#7
12-22-2006, 12:43 PM
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Re: AK rivers two pair, gets raised
Out of curiousity I pokerstoved this hand:
against a range of: TT,88,ATs,AT,KTs,KTo,K8s,K8o,A8s,A8,QJs,QJ (am I missing any?) are equity on the river is 52.174%. Which would mean that without a stronger read a 3bet is profitable.
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#8
12-22-2006, 01:39 PM
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Re: AK rivers two pair, gets raised
[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiousity I pokerstoved this hand: against a range of: TT,88,ATs,AT,KTs,KTo,K8s,K8o,A8s,A8,QJs,QJ (am I missing any?) are equity on the river is 52.174%. Which would mean that without a stronger read a 3bet is profitable. [/ QUOTE ] Even if weaker hands call/fold and stronger hands cap?
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#9
12-22-2006, 04:00 PM
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Re: AK rivers two pair, gets raised
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Out of curiousity I pokerstoved this hand: against a range of: TT,88,ATs,AT,KTs,KTo,K8s,K8o,A8s,A8,QJs,QJ (am I missing any?) are equity on the river is 52.174%. Which would mean that without a stronger read a 3bet is profitable. [/ QUOTE ] Even if weaker hands call/fold and stronger hands cap? [/ QUOTE ] If we have a 52% equity in a pot where we're getting 11:1 I would think so. right??? I'm gonna try the math. I suck at this so feel free to correct me. Assume we put MP1 on a range of (ATs,ATo,KTs,KTo,K8s,K8o,A8s,A8o,TT,88,QJs,QJo) on the river the pot is 8.67BB. We bet and get check raised (11.67BB total)There are 24 combos of hands that we beat (38.7%) and 38 (61.3%)combos of hands that beat us. -We 3 bet 38.7% we're ahead and just get called we win 16.67BB - We 3bet, get capped and call 61.3%. We lose 3 bets. Win 38.7%*16.67=645.1BB lose 61.3%* 3.0 =183.9BB Profit 461.2BB If we just call 38.7% we win 12.67BB=490.3BB 61.3% we lose 1BB=61.3BB Profit 429BB If I did this right, we make more by raising. That's not including the times MP1 caps with a hand we beat or is playing some random hand outside this range that we crush. I really don't think he's gonna fold any of these hands for just 1 bet in a pot this big.
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