10-15 outers, heads up, out of position

[rafiki]

Tonight I ran into a ton of hands where I end up in a raised pot out of position, and by the turn I have a solid 10 to 15 outs and I'm first to act. In situations where I put in a 3rd bet preflop and I have the initiative, it's just bet, bet, and then evaluate the river.

But in other hands when I check/call the flop, and then catch the big draw on the turn, is there really any point at all to doing more then check/call ? I've never seen anyone fold any pair there. Anyone suggest a line that gives me a chance to win the hand without hitting ? I think I'm asking for something that doesn't exist, because even A high calls those turn cr's these days on stars...

[NinaWilliams]

I usually just c/c these too. While you can win without a showdown, its not that easy and you get pounded those times when they have top pair or an overpair.

[sethypooh21]

It so depends on the board and previous action - there are sometimes where you can profitably C/R and fire river UI, and times where putting in extra action on the turn is pure spewdom. Post some specific hands and let's discuss board textures...

[yellowjack]

one other factor is whether or not we are willing to showdown UI. this has a huge impact on how I play my draws.

[exlka]

i'm struggling with picked up draws on the turn as well. Bad players, oblivious to all this, will call anyway and good players notice the possible semibluff spot and might even put you to the test with a 3-bet. So it's really situational. I will certainly try it against very low Wts Types, whenever i feel weakness. But for the most part i agree: just c/c especially with SD Value.

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
I've never seen anyone fold any pair there.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you actually see anyone fold anything

There is plenty of spots where you can c/r a good draw. If you have 10-15 out you need very little FE. If the pot is 6BB including villains bet you pay 2 to win 6. With 15 outs you will suck out with about 35% prob so your FE for the play to be +EV doesnt need to be more than 15-18%. (Do the precise calcs yourself if you dont trust me, I am prolly wrong)

[yellowjack]

When I have a huge draw on the turn w/ the betting initiative, I bet the river as well. With a weaker draw, c/f if you can't showdown. This results in most of your missed draws being c/f on the river, but the odd time you'll 3-barrel.

When you don't have the betting initiative, I would work on balancing the range of hands I would c/r the turn with so that it's -EV or 0 EV for them to calldown. This idea is from Phil Galfond's article in bluff, I think it's linked somewhere on the frontpage. This is a bit of work to do on your own, but here's a lengthy example:

You defended the BB vs. a HJ PFR.
The flop went c/c and you've checked the turn to a villain's bet.

Pot is 4 BB when villain bets the turn and you are about to c/r
Board: Jh 8c 2d Kh
Villain's hand: JTo (no hearts)

Suppose your range is 22, KJs, K8s, J8s, KJo, Qh Th, Qh 9h, Th 9h.

6 hands of 22
2 hands of KJs
3 hands of K8s
2 hands of J8s
4 hands of KJo
3 flush draws

Qh Th has 18 outs, Qh 9h has 14 outs, Th 9h has 15 outs. A FD we have has an average of 16 outs.

On the river, assume we will bet all cards whether we improved or not. Check/calling with a rivered 2nd or 3rd pair after c/r-ing the turn is very exploitable.

Villain's calldown EV:
-2 BB (17/20 made hands) + 6 BB (3/20 FDs)*(16/44 outs) = -1.37 BB

The hand ranges I gave are superficial and should NOT resemble your actual hand range. A lot of flopped made hands should be c/r-ed on the flop to balance the strength of the hands you c/r the flop with and the hands you c/r the turn with.

Perhaps a better hand range in the example to c/r the turn with would have been to remove KJs & J8s (to reserve for a flop c/r) and throw in KQ (both offsuit and suited). I'm too lazy to change that now.

I am aware OP understands this, but pair + FD combos should be c/c UI and c/r (or bet) if improved. Therefore they were not included in the range of hands.

[milesdyson]

funny hand:

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB folds.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (7SB, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, 2 folds.
Uncalled bets: 1SB returned to Hero.

Results:
Final pot: 5BB

[Tryptamean]

haha, I like it when that happens, I guess they've never heard of semi-bluffing

[frenchpignouf]

another example

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB