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#1
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FTP $750K in the money
Hello all..
So, yesterday I played in one of the FTP's $750k sunday tournaments. I did really well for the most part and end up finishing 11 out of 4025 players and cashed out almost $8k. The following hand came up when we were down to 11 players. At this point I did not particularly know how the remaining players at the table played because I was moved from another table. All I could observe was that there were a lot of preflop open-shovings. So after folding a decent amount of hands, I took a shot with the below hand when it was checked to me. FullTiltPoker Game #4300563546: $750,000 Guarantee (30799714), Table 77 - 25000/50000 Ante 6000 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:06:37 ET - 2007/11/26 Seat 1: ELIA (1,337,479) Seat 2: tschueg (963,228) Seat 3: Tim_Rantasha (1,043,819) Seat 7: baykut (362,213) Seat 8: ActionAaron (945,784) ELIA antes 6,000 tschueg antes 6,000 Tim_Rantasha antes 6,000 baykut antes 6,000 ActionAaron antes 6,000 ELIA posts the small blind of 25,000 tschueg posts the big blind of 50,000 The button is in seat #8 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to baykut [Td 2h] Tim_Rantasha folds baykut raises to 356,213, and is all in When I did this play I was the 11th out of 11 players. So I thought I could not any longer fold my way into higher money places considering that my M was dropping rapidly with the relatively high antes and blinds. Harrington says that if your M is 3 and no one has entered the pot yet and you think: 1) there is a 50% chance that your remaining opponents will fold to an all-in bet and 2) you are 2-1 dog to win if you are called then; you can move all-in with a positive expectation. I pushed because I thought there was a greater chance than 50% that the big blind would fold. I think in this spot he might be willing to call with his top 15-25 percent hands and fold the rest. As far as being a 2-1 dog; if he were to call with AKo, I think I am getting the proper odds. Considering what Harrington says and from your experience, how would you rate my play? Would you have waited for a better spot to take a stand? |
#2
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Re: FTP $750K in the money
I think this is borderline. If one of the big stacks hadnt already folded I would definitely wait a hand and push as UTG, the likely improvement in your hand equity outweighing a fold from an average stack. Plus it gives your shoving range a little more credibiity because theyve seen you fold with first in vig.
With one of the big stacks folding youve improved your chances of a push making it around considerably vs an UTG push. On balance I probably fold here because I like a hand to have something more than "two live cards" potential. |
#3
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Re: FTP $750K in the money
standard
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#4
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Re: FTP $750K in the money
I think this is a bad play. You have one of the worst hands possible. t2s, 54o, Q2o, or T7o have a significantly higher win rate. With t2o, you are 27% against of top 20% hand. I would wait for a better hand UTG. If you don't get one, I don't know if I push T2o or whatever then. However, here why not wait for the chance that you get a better hand.
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#5
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Re: FTP $750K in the money
betgo i doubt unknowns are calling well enough here to make shoving ATC not good. but i cud be wrong.
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#6
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Re: FTP $750K in the money
[ QUOTE ]
betgo i doubt unknowns are calling well enough here to make shoving ATC not good. but i cud be wrong. [/ QUOTE ] Why not wait one more hand for a better hand? You can't get a significantly worse one. Also, I am not sure going through the blinds is worse than shoving junk in early position. You may have a hand you can defend with in the blinds, and it will be an even easier shove shorter stack if you don't. |
#7
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Re: FTP $750K in the money
I think it is pretty much mandatory to shove here, ur gonna pick up the blinds and ante about half the time if not more
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#8
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Re: FTP $750K in the money
i disagree with that play, i wouldve waited for one more hand.
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#9
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Re: FTP $750K in the money
Jeez this hand is awful. You don't even have to wait until UTG, because you can easily let the blinds pass through you.
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#10
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Re: FTP $750K in the money
You would have to be facing the 3 tightest players in the universe with no concept of short stack play for t2 to be a shove here. Either that or you would have to have the tightest image in the history of harness racing.
According to mu highly proprietary push fold calculation methodology(lol), you need 22+,A2+,K9o+,K4s+,QTo+,Q8s+,JTo,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s ,76s to shove and they need 22+,A2+,K9o+,K6s+,QTo+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s to call sheets |
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