My big problem

[ChipLeader]

To date, I am one of the most successful $10 STT players on PokerStars (28% ROI) and they have always been my ATM so to speak. Lately however, I have been breaking even at best with the occasional up swing followed by a quick drop back down. I think I have isolated the problem and would like to hear some insight from other players who play a lot of STTs on Stars, nonturbo format.

I have been getting a TON of 4ths. The problem comes that I cannot steal blinds often enough to be +EV. What I mean is, in the final 4 with relatively decent blinds (50/100 minimum, generally 75/150 and higher), i can successfully steal preflop with a raise on 50% of my attempts... if that. The other times, I am either reraised or called, leaving me with a hand that will rarely hit a flop or a pair that is hard to play.

The following is all the strategies Ive tried but I cant find something that works.

Only raise made hands: Even if ive doubled early, with blinds at 75/150 or 100/200 I cannot afford to wait for the high pairs. I thought this would work while the donks beat on each other but it really hasnt been.

Raise 77+, broadway hands JQ+: This I thought to be the right amount of selective aggression, as most the hands im raising are strong if i get a call and i am getting them frequently enough to keep from blinding off my stack. The problem is the midpairs, even TT/JJ, often face overs on the flop, while the big unmade hands miss 2/3 times and sometimes hit but with an overcard. If blinds are 100/200 and i make a standard raise to 600 preflop and miss, another continuation bet leaves me crippled or forced to call a raise. If i dont continuation bet, I am giving free cards and announcing "I MISSED, FEEL FREE TO BLUFF". The other problem is dealing with preflop pushes, as few of these hands are appropriate to stake my life 4 handed.

Raise 99+, AK/AQ/AJ/KQ: I tried this when i saw all the times I had to fold to a preflop push or deal with misses or marginal flops. With this range, my hands are easier to play. However, you get these hands very seldom and still run into a whiffed flop with the big aces or overcards to your pairs.

Ive also tried just feeling out good spots to take a stab, regardless of my hands. However, I am amazed at how often I get called by the button or one of the blinds, regardless of where I raise from. When I tried this, I found I was forced to play substantial pots (at these blinds, any preflop raised pot is somewhat substantial) with very marginal hands. Even when I hit i rarely have confidence in my kicker, have no clue of their range, etc.


I would really like to hear anything everyone has to say about this, regardless of what it is. If you havent noticed such loose calling and think its strange ive had, Id like to hear that too so I can question whether its just a streak. If youve found a way around this, id love to hear it. If youre one of those people who calls everytime the button raises your BB, id love to hear about how you play that flop so i can better understand. Im really looking for anything I can get here.

[pr0crast]

If your stack is such that playing postflop (i.e. cbetting) would be awkward for your stack size, then stick to your ICM push instead of trying to squeeze in "steal" raises.

[ChipLeader]

In final 4 my stack is avg 2300, sometimes its still in the 1000s somewhere, sometimes 3000s and occasionally im 4000+ (though I have no problems getting 4th with that stack). If blinds are 100/200, making a standard 600-800 raise pre commites 1/3 - 1/4 my stack, not pleasant to deal with if i miss and have to bluff for my life or give it up hurt. Pushing 2000+ for 300 also doesnt seem wise, as I will be in a race situation or dominated anytime i dont have QQ, KK, AA, or AK. AJ/AQ is a prime example, if i push i get called by only AQ/AK and PPs. If i raise i can get pushed off or forced to call praying to be 50/50. I dont think I like the push or fold logic in a SnG, though i think its absolutely correct in a MTT setting where the payouts for the top places mean taking races to put yourself in position to win. In a SnG, the payout is the same from 4th to 3rd as 2nd to 1st.

[ymu]

ICM. Read about it, understand it, use it.

[ChipLeader]

Researching it right now, thank you. I have my doubts that this is the end all solution to my whole post, but im very glad you brought it to my attention.

[pr0crast]

Okay first of all, if blinds are 100/200 your standard open raise should NOT be 600-800, that is insane. Try 2.5BB (i.e. 500) when you are past levels 1 and 2 and that's all you need. Second of all, go buy SNGPT and learn ICM.

That is all you need to know.

[pr0crast]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think I like the push or fold logic in a SnG

[/ QUOTE ]
Over what sample size was your 28% ROI?

[ChipLeader]

1400 game sample... though ive dropped to 26% due to recent sucking.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
1400 game sample... though ive dropped to 26% due to recent sucking.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sorry, but you probably always sucked - you just cancelled out a hot streak.

The logic behind pushing when down to around 10BBs is that you do not have enough chips to play the hand through - you only have one PSB left for the flop, and c/f just leaves you in even worse trouble.

STTs are different from MTTs, which is why you push different hands in different situations in STTs. Picking up the blinds is hugely important - you're not always looking to race with a push, a lot of your equity from a push comes from there being only a small chance that any of your opponents have a hand strong enough to call you with.

If you don't already understand ICM, read some of the threads about it. It's unexploitable, and you can't play any other way in a short-stacked tournament.

[Kevin8423]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I dont think I like the push or fold logic in a SnG

[/ QUOTE ]
Over what sample size was your 28% ROI?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, IMO you either did not have this ROI over that sample or you ran hotter than anyone I have ever seen. Your OP alone shows a high amount of big leaks.