NL25 - OESFD on flop, just get the money in ASAP?

[rdrr]

Villian is unknown, if it matters at all.

Was this played correctly?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $10.30
BB: $24.25
Hero (UTG): $25.40
UTG+1: $23.75
MP1: $24.75
MP2: $17.15
CO: $29.00
BTN: $12.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8 Players)
Hero calls $0.25, 5 folds, SB calls $0.15, BB checks

Flop: ($0.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $0.50</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $10.05</font>, Hero calls $8.05

[effang]

uh, you can't ask for anything better! nh! you should get this in with 200 bb stacks as well. you are only down to a larger FD, and you have huge outs against sets/2p

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
uh, you can't ask for anything better! nh! you should get this in with 200 bb stacks as well. you are only down to a larger FD, and you have huge outs against sets/2p

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, I'm just not in agreement with this at all. Perhaps I need help here, but we're not in that great of shape here.

Against a set, our equity is in the low 40s.

Against 2 pair, our equity is in the low 50s. If his 2 pair includes the Jd, we're actually a slight dog.

Against something like AJ, we're in teh mid 50s again; however, I think it's less likely that someone gets all in with a tp hand, then a bigger hand. If his hand is a tp hand with a larger diamond, like AdJ, we're actually just a hair of a favorite as well.

It's always hard to do these, but even with a range like this (I'm sure adjustments could be made, but my point remains), I think this could be razor thin and just lend itself to more variance.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

72,270 games 0.015 secs 4,818,000 games/sec

Board: 5d 6d Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.239% 50.24% 00.00% 36308 0.00 { 8d7d }
Hand 1: 49.761% 49.76% 00.00% 35962 0.00 { JJ, 66-55, AJs, KJs, QJs, J6s-J5s, 65s, AdJs, KJo, QJo, JTo, J6o-J5o, 65o }

If we could get all in first and get some FE, perhaps this makes more sense to me...idk.

Thoughts?

[MarcusT]

He has to put $8.05 on a $13.30 pot and get 2 cards. How can this be wrong?

[QTip]

I'm not sure if you can treat NL this way or not; however, the way I'm used to looking at it is this way. The way this hand went down against anyone with half a brain, I'm saying we probably half about 45% equity in a $13.30 pot, which is about $6 worth...we're putting in over $8 for this.

Help me if I'm misapplying limit concepts to this game please.

[MarcusT]

Let's say we're going to throw a coin for $10. I put my $10 first, how much are you willing to put?

Since you win chance is 50% you can put up to $10 to profit. IOW the right math you should do is 45% of a $21,30 pot, which is about $9,60, so you can call $8 with a profit.

[Jay2u]

[ QUOTE ]
...I'm saying we probably half about 45% equity in a $13.30 pot, which is about $6 worth...we're putting in over $8 for this.
...

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure, but I thought the needed equity should be measured against the total potsize after calling: 8.05/21.35 = 37.4%, which makes it a call.

Am I wrong?

J

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if you can treat NL this way or not; however, the way I'm used to looking at it is this way. The way this hand went down against anyone with half a brain, I'm saying we probably half about 45% equity in a $13.30 pot, which is about $6 worth...we're putting in over $8 for this.

Help me if I'm misapplying limit concepts to this game please.

[/ QUOTE ]

uh the pot is 21something, 45% of that is ~10

[friedace]

[ QUOTE ]


Man, I'm just not in agreement with this at all. Perhaps I need help here, but we're not in that great of shape here.

Against a set, our equity is in the low 40s.

Against 2 pair, our equity is in the low 50s. If his 2 pair includes the Jd, we're actually a slight dog.

Against something like AJ, we're in teh mid 50s again; however, I think it's less likely that someone gets all in with a tp hand, then a bigger hand. If his hand is a tp hand with a larger diamond, like AdJ, we're actually just a hair of a favorite as well.

It's always hard to do these, but even with a range like this (I'm sure adjustments could be made, but my point remains), I think this could be razor thin and just lend itself to more variance.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

72,270 games 0.015 secs 4,818,000 games/sec

Board: 5d 6d Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.239% 50.24% 00.00% 36308 0.00 { 8d7d }
Hand 1: 49.761% 49.76% 00.00% 35962 0.00 { JJ, 66-55, AJs, KJs, QJs, J6s-J5s, 65s, AdJs, KJo, QJo, JTo, J6o-J5o, 65o }

If we could get all in first and get some FE, perhaps this makes more sense to me...idk.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're getting a bit over 3:2 on the call, so even if we're 40%, it's break even. If we're 40% or better against his range it is +EV. And against the range you propose, we're a coinflip, so calling is +EV.

Thoughts?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
uh, you can't ask for anything better! nh! you should get this in with 200 bb stacks as well. you are only down to a larger FD, and you have huge outs against sets/2p

[/ QUOTE ]

I respectively disagree with this as well. Getting 200 bb in with this hand against any player but a crazy one I think would be a pretty decent sized mistake imo. The larger our stacks get, the more closer this bet gets to a 50/50, and the lower our equity most likely becomes.