TT hand in 3r right around bubble for first payout

kasey2004 · #1 07-31-2006, 05:29 PM

not that i care about cashing for $10 or something ... just stating the point in the tourney...

villan has been folding for as long as ive been at the table which is about 3 orbits

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t800/t1600
(Ante: t75)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t22660
UTG+1: t16621
MP1: t27456
MP2: t42827
MP3: t45126
CO: t24045
Button: t26748
kasey2004: t21920
BB: t80080

Pre-flop: (9 players) kasey2004 is SB with

UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises all-in t16546</font>, 5 folds, kasey2004 ??

Imrahil · #2 07-31-2006, 05:32 PM

I'd fold. At best you're like 55%. Wait for a better spot.

0evg0 · #3 07-31-2006, 05:39 PM

Call.

NoahSD · #4 07-31-2006, 05:40 PM

It's not like the guy's open folding 77 or AJ, so call.

Edit: fold 99 tho.

kasey2004 · #5 07-31-2006, 05:46 PM

ya this is sooo close for me... 99 im folding, JJ im calling

if i thought he was desparate/ if i had any more chips / if he had any less chips i would instacall

0evg0 · #6 07-31-2006, 05:51 PM

A general theory question, but does our stack size make any difference here at all? I'm inclined to say no, but I've been looking for high-variance/high EV plays lately like it's my j-o-b.

shaundeeb · #7 07-31-2006, 05:39 PM

sadly I think the majority will say fold here which I think is really weak. He's shoving a lot of weaker hands there and very rarely is is QQ+ open shoving for that much. So jacks is the 1 hand you have to worry about being crushed by everything else it's good to make the call against.

juris · #8 07-31-2006, 06:01 PM

None of you seem to make any decision based on what I thought was the most important information given by OP:

villan has been folding for as long as ive been at the table which is about 3 orbits

This tightens his range up significantly in my opinion. No attempted steals, uber-rock. Sure he could open push with JJ+, in which case you're dominated. He could do this with AK, AQ, possibly (although I'm not confident) AJ, in which case you're a coinflip.

Finally, he could do this with 66-99, in which you're a heavy favorite.

I fold in this spot, and it's pretty easy to do so. If he hadn't been so uber-tight I'd agree this is a good situation to call.

NoahSD · #9 07-31-2006, 06:05 PM

Juris,
Quick way to think about this:

66-99 = 4 PPs that we dominate
JJ+ = 4 PPs that dominate us
So, we break even against PPs and we're a small favorite against overcards... that's a call.

skier_5 · #10 07-31-2006, 06:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Juris,
Quick way to think about this:

66-99 = 4 PPs that we dominate
JJ+ = 4 PPs that dominate us
So, we break even against PPs and we're a small favorite against overcards... that's a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

not only that, but I doubt most villians play AA/KK maybe even QQ like this ever.

I call.