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#1
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Odds of going busto?
Sorry if this has been brought up already.
Assuming i bet 2% units and my max bet is 3 units on any 1 play. risking on average 10-15 units per day. Does anybody know the probability of going bust? what about with 1% units? thanks in advance |
#2
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Re: Odds of going busto?
27.42%
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#3
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Re: Odds of going busto?
Odds of going busto:
> 99% |
#4
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Re: Odds of going busto?
There is no way this question can be answered (if the question even makes any sense to begin with) with the amount of information given.
Think for one second about why this is. |
#5
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Re: Odds of going busto?
the odds im betting? im not new to sports betting but i am new to betting it every day and just wanted a little advice is all
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#6
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Re: Odds of going busto?
yeah we need to know what are the odds you are betting at, what is the chance your bet will win (let's call it p) and your question needs to be "what is the chance I will go bust in x days (or x bets)?" where you specify x. Because if you mean what is the chance you go busto in the long run it is actually really easy. If p=1 then the chance is 0, if p<1 then the chance is 1.
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#7
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Re: Odds of going busto?
well usually between -120 and +200, chance i will win each bet on average is probably about 50%. Assuming i bet 2700 units per year but i dont make 2700 bets, bets are 1-3 units so between 2700 and 900 bets per year. say we average at 2 units thats 1800 bets a year. So say yearly?
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#8
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Re: Odds of going busto?
We need to know your ROI or edge per bet.
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#9
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Re: Odds of going busto?
[ QUOTE ]
well usually between -120 and +200, chance i will win each bet on average is probably about 50%. Assuming i bet 2700 units per year but i dont make 2700 bets, bets are 1-3 units so between 2700 and 900 bets per year. say we average at 2 units thats 1800 bets a year. So say yearly? [/ QUOTE ] Assuming you are betting 1800 bets per year each one 2% of your bankroll, these bets are uniformly distributed between -120 and 200, and there is a 50% chance that each bet is successful there is a under .001% chance you will fall under 5% of your original roll in a year. But I am sure that you are not finding 1800 bets per year that are uniformly distributed between -120 and 200 that win 50% of the time. |
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