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#1
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Question on Variance & judging your play
Have been running the worst i ever have in MTT's. Here's my question. I can deal with getting rivered over and over and over and losing flips over and over, that's variance. However, I was wondering, when reviewing HH's and how you played, if you look at your session and find you were playing tad nitty but getting it in good 80% of the time, worst case just barely behind with multilple draws and overcards. Just because you are "getting it in good a lot", does that mean you are actually playing well and variance is just sticking its ugly black head out? or is it possible I am getting it in good, just in the wrong spots? I feel like if I'm going to be rivered, it doesn't really matter where you get it in, unless you get all the money in on fifth street drawing completely dead. Would like to hear successful players who turn a profit in this game opinions. Thanks.
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#2
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Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
Does one play good if you allways fold and only play AA when blinded down to 1 big blind and you lose while getting it in good?
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#3
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Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
[ QUOTE ]
Does one play good if you allways fold and only play AA when blinded down to 1 big blind and you lose while getting it in good? [/ QUOTE ] No, i definitely consider myself a student of the game, i started playing micro stakes and have read every book watched every show, blah blah blah. I strongly believe my fundamentals are strong (therefore not making giant mistakes like blinding myself down etc.) I also consider myself a thinking player (not just playing my cards, but playing the person, the table dynamics, antes/blind levels, money bubble) I have been reviewing my HH's and am starting to realize you need to win flips and small edge situations in deep stages of MTT's to be successful as well. I play a nitty style in the lower buy in levels becuz people tend to just want to give you chips. There is no pushing ace-rag off a A-J-K flop with a open ended str8 flush draw or hands of that sort. I joined card runners and hopefully their videos will help me substantially. But clearly, I think if i just try to make the best decision I can on every street which results in getting my money "in good". That is all I can do. I think this is kinda a good topic tho, does anyone else have any ideas or opinions on if getting your money in good a large percentage of the time truly makes you a winning player. Some winning players who tend to be aggro accumulators will tell you they got all the way to the final table showing their cards no more than 5 times. Is there an advantage to both styles? |
#4
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Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
You're still kind of focussing on the wrong thing if I understand you correctly. Good tournament play often means putting in your money in situations where you'll almost certainly have the worst of it if you get called. I can't recommend much more than studying the MTT forums and asking questions where appropriate ; and for tournaments, I think PokerXFactor is your best bet, you can play back HHs without paying the subscription, check out the stickied thread in SSMTT.
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#5
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Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
I've been in the same spot lately so I know how you feel. I'm pretty sure I'm a winning player, but this year has been pretty terrible for me. I haven't put in a lot of volume or anything, but I've really started to question whether I'm actually a winning player. I'm sure part of it is running bad, and part of it is bad play, and I feel like my solution is finding some people to swap HHs with, which is something I've neglected to do/been putting off. Also, I think a big part of my problem has been just lack of concentration, I'm pretty sure if I played with as much thought as I put into responding to threads in SSMTT then I would be doing better.
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#6
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Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
Really nice topic and i feel the same way. Its not just about losing flips tho. When you lose flips , you can at least see if you ve made the right play or not, however its way more complicated then that.
Let's say you 3-bet light or bluff bet the river. You are gona get called and lose some % of a time. Lets say villain is pretty unknown and you need him to fold 60% of a time to make this play profitable. When you run bad and get called a lot in this spot you start tightening up and in turn passing up the +EV spots, because you start thinking he folds less then 60 here. |
#7
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Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
MTTs are insanely mentally draining and I feel like I could write a 5 page rant about this but I'm too lazy at the moment.
MTT variance has made me the nutjob I am today. |
#8
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Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
i can take everything except late in tournment, people gamble with very unlikely cards for all their stack, and hit hard.
i can never understand the call with 34-47 sooted or 22-55. |
#9
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Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
[ QUOTE ]
MTTs are insanely mentally draining and I feel like I could write a 5 page rant about this but I'm too lazy at the moment. MTT variance has made me the nutjob I am today. [/ QUOTE ] |
#10
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Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
[ QUOTE ]
You're still kind of focussing on the wrong thing if I understand you correctly. Good tournament play often means putting in your money in situations where you'll almost certainly have the worst of it if you get called. I can't recommend much more than studying the MTT forums and asking questions where appropriate ; and for tournaments, I think PokerXFactor is your best bet, you can play back HHs without paying the subscription, check out the stickied thread in SSMTT. [/ QUOTE ] word...the tournaments where someone calls me a donkey, are usually the ones where I am playing good |
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