Flopped set vs. a LAG's odd line

NIX · #1 06-26-2007, 05:10 AM

MP1 is running at 24/19/3 over 42 hands. He's obviously aggressive preflop and quite aggressive postflop. He doesn't peel a lot of flops and on the turn and river, he's is often betting/raising or folding. He has been to showdowns a little less often than I'd expect, but wins a lot of them.

Full Tilt 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises, 4 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, MP1 caps, Hero calls.

Flop: (11.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls.

River: (7.75 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls.

I planned on check/raising the flop since there is a lot for him to call with and worse hands that he can jam. When he didn't bet, I figured there was a good chance he has a higher set. With this particular Villain's reluctance to call bets on big streets, is this ok to balance value, or is it too weak?

Zeldark · #2 06-26-2007, 05:24 AM

At least C/R the river.

Edit: I think your mainstream and your alternative lines should meet up with a raise on the river.

Babar, read his last sentence, focusing on "is this ok to balance" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

BigBadBabar · #3 06-26-2007, 05:27 AM

jesus christ what are you doing??? missed flop c/r, okay fine it happens. b/3b or c/r the turn please and get some money in the pot!!!

edited to add more exclamation points and question marks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

BigBadBabar · #4 06-26-2007, 05:29 AM

also 24/19 - not really a lag

Xhad · #5 06-26-2007, 09:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
jesus christ what are you doing??? missed flop c/r, okay fine it happens. b/3b or c/r the turn please and get some money in the pot!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

babar, what's your range here, even ignoring the read?

NIX · #6 06-26-2007, 11:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can put him on a set so easy. He might do the same with JJ or AA. Think he'd cap AQs?

I think I'd lose a lot of money on this hand if he does have QQ/KK. I might figure it out when he caps the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe thinking set is too MUBSy. Yes, I think he'd cap AQs. I could see him taking this line on the flop/turn with AQs/JJ as well, but I'm not sure if he is gonna call a raise with those hands if I check/raise the turn. If I donk the turn and get raised, I'm not so sure I want to 3bet though.

[ QUOTE ]
At least C/R the river.

Edit: I think your mainstream and your alternative lines should meet up with a raise on the river.

Babar, read his last sentence, focusing on "is this ok to balance" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought about raising the river too, but I'm not sure if he'll call me with and I don't want to fold a set. I'd expect this guy to dump just about anything that I beat except potentially KQs (may not cap PF) or AA/AK, and I'm not sure why he doesn't just lead the flop with those three hands.

Guitierez · #7 06-26-2007, 05:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
When he didn't bet, I figured there was a good chance he has a higher set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this at all. He has an AF of 3. Do you consider him a backward player, checking monsters, betting crap?

Definitely raise turn.

BigBadBabar · #8 06-26-2007, 06:17 AM

zeldark, no, it's not okay.

BigBadBabar · #9 06-26-2007, 06:19 AM

also 42 hands isn't a sample of a size that we can justifiably make plays like this. 50/30 is a lag. i guess lags are rarer in fr though so i could give you an overaggro fit or foldy tag, but it's only 4-5 orbits and a couple better hands than normal distribution will easily give you those stats. either way, we have a set, get money in the pot, sheesh.

BigBadBabar · #10 06-26-2007, 06:25 AM

argh, babar is going to bed before he gets too angry.