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View Poll Results: Will the PS3 flop? | |||
Complete flop | 12 | 11.76% | |
Less sales than expected | 29 | 28.43% | |
Average sales | 12 | 11.76% | |
Above average sales | 6 | 5.88% | |
PS3 will be an enormous success | 14 | 13.73% | |
I don't care - results. | 29 | 28.43% | |
Voters: 102. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1
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At least I\'m getting the low.
Stack sizes:
UTG: $1.000.80 US: $406.40 SB: $390.00 BB: $400.00 Pre-flop: (4 players) US is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG calls, <font color="#cc0000">US raises to $18</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls. Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($58, 3 players) SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">US bets $40</font>, SB folds, UTG calls. Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($138, 2 players) UTG checks, US checks. River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($138, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $200</font>, US?? no reads on main villain, one of my 1st hands at the table. Other guy is taggish i think. Villain's limp/call would suggest he's at least somewhat donkish. I don't think there's anything to discuss really, just want your general opinion. Here are the only reasons for your choice imo. fold: he has a FH/better straight too often call: he has an overplayed 3/other random hand (AA etc). some of the time, but we are still behind his range. shove: same as call, but we are ahead of his range. if you have anything to add to that, please do o/w just vote, thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#2
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
[ QUOTE ]
call: he has an overplayed 3/other random hand (AA etc). some of the time, but we are still behind his range. [/ QUOTE ] i dont think we're behind his range for betting but that we are behind his range for calling a shove. |
#3
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
im pretty sure his betting range = calling range except for a really small amount of the time where he's bluffing. which is pretty much never imo
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#4
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
two things are key here:
1) you say his betting range = calling range. i can agree with this 2) we need to be good 50% to raise while with the initial call we are looking at 1.7:1 or 42% equity to just call. <42% equity: fold 42%-50%: call >50%: shove i think 3x is basically his threshold hand to make this play and i think we'll see the overbet more with the higher end of his range. thus i would probably fold 3x, call with A2, probably shove 67 and obv shove all boats+ |
#5
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
If his betting range = his calling range, then we should either fold (when behind) or push (when ahead).
I think we're ahead of his betting range, so if your assumption about betting range=calling range is right, we have to push |
#6
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
[ QUOTE ]
If his betting range = his calling range, then we should either fold (when behind) or push (when ahead). I think we're ahead of his betting range, so if your assumption about betting range=calling range is right, we have to push [/ QUOTE ] it's not that simple; see above |
#7
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
[ QUOTE ]
two things are key here: 1) you say his betting range = calling range. i can agree with this 2) we need to be good 50% to raise while with the initial call we are looking at 1.7:1 or 42% equity to just call. <42% equity: fold 42%-50%: call >50%: shove i think 3x is basically his threshold hand to make this play and i think we'll see the overbet more with the higher end of his range. thus i would probably fold 3x, call with A2, probably shove 67 and obv shove all boats+ [/ QUOTE ] this is a very good post |
#8
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
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im pretty sure his betting range = calling range except for a really small amount of the time where he's bluffing. which is pretty much never imo [/ QUOTE ] If you think this is true it's a fold, 99/55/44/33>>>3x imo. There's 2 combos of Axs, how many limp/call 3x utg? There's 10 combos of FHs/quads, all of them likely to play this way. He's def more likely to overbet a FH on the river. |
#9
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
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im pretty sure his betting range = calling range except for a really small amount of the time where he's bluffing. which is pretty much never imo [/ QUOTE ] Why can't he have some A3 hand, missed the turn c/r and now overbets/fold the river? Do you think he's not betting or not folding? |
#10
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Re: At least I\'m getting the low.
i dont think he expects you to fold, that said he prolly views your hand as a marginal 2 pair hand at best and could be doing this with worse. I dont think villain can have that many 3s and couple of those, maybe ~4 combos, also have a FH here. nor do i think he can have 99, but even 5s full is possible. agree with nick royale that the overbet is much more likely to be a FH than 67 and worse. it's only 4 handed so your range for calling should be a little wider. I would think it's about neutural EV to call here, maybe youll lose slightly, and I would never shove.
also, timing tells can be important, when donks insta bet big on river it's usually a missed turn c/r. |
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