Nl600: AQs

[Chain Chomp]

Just a check up if this is okay..
button 44/20/3, Co 40/24/3.2


Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $3/$6
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $1081.3
CO: $433.8
Button: $176
SB: $158.25
Hero: $600

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $18</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $105</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($333, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $78</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in $495</font>

[DanielDayLewis]

i cant think of single hand he folds.

[luegofuego]

terrrriibleeee

[KeanuReaver]

i did something similar a couple days ago
i regretted it basically as soon as i hit the raise button cause it occured to me i probably don't even get AK to fold

it's so terrible it makes me cringe

[Chain Chomp]

yea. Didnt think too much. outs == ARR-IN. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-A.S

[jfish]

you have about 35% equity so it looks ok..

[jfish]

high variance breakeven or -ev.

[MrHoobris]

Thought this was a difficult spot, so I decided to run the numbers on this one and got some interesting results.

Pot Size after villain bets: 333 + 78 = 411
Left to Shove: 433.8 - 105 = 328.8 (effective stacks of 433.8)
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 333 + 328.8*2 = 990.6

Equity when called*:
*The range will vary a lot on the donk, but in general we will always have around 35% equity with the overcards, bdfd, and gutshot.

Board: 2c 5d 3h
Dead:

Hand 0: 35.842% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 64.158% { AcAs, AdAs, KcKs, KdKs, JJ-77, 55, 65s }

Let X = probability villain folds.

EV of Shove is neutral when:
0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.35 - 328.8)
X = -5%.

So villain never has to fold for this to be +EV! A couple more numbers:
X = 0%, EV = 17.91
X = 10%, EV = 57.22
X = 20%, EV = 96.53

So, not a terrible play at all. Nice hand hero!

[BlackAMEX]

Im fine with this. At worst this is marginally -EV, Id prob play it the same.

FYI I think the above range is a little too tight also given stats. This certainly isnt terrible and I challenge others to provide evidence otherwise.