So much for pot control... (nl600)

Trivial · #1 05-02-2007, 07:09 AM

UTG is a big donk, 49/14/0.86.

SB is thepopinjay, running at 22/15/2 after ~200 hands. Not sure if they are 2p2 but seemed to be playing multiple tables. Only history saw them check min-raising me on an AAx board and then half-potting turn & river (I folded river in that hand).

Preflop I was very surprised when they called my slightly oversized raise (which was naturally targetting the donk) and overall can't put them on a holding here which makes sense. So, is river fold standard here? My range is obv also going to include a lot of unpaired overcards and weaker pocket pairs, so if I'm actually folding AA here I don't know wtf I can ever call with given the way the hand played out. On the other hand, he called a sizeable flop bet so I'm pretty confused overall if this is indeed a bluff...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($1510.55)
UTG ($298.45)
MP ($926.50)
Button ($558.80)
SB ($685.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $6, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to $36, UTG calls $30, SB calls $30.

Flop: ($108) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $72, UTG folds, SB calls $72.

Turn: ($252) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($252) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $577.6 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $829.60

feesjah · #2 05-02-2007, 07:17 AM

I would call this since you're hand is so underrepped.
he can easily have AJ or KJ here or even some random crap ?
no real draws that can call that flop bet. so this is def. a call for me

Kristian · #3 05-02-2007, 07:36 AM

There are some signs pointing towards him not being a very good player I think, so I can find a call here. Normally an easy river call, but it is such a massive overbet that I do think it is very close.

stigmata · #4 05-02-2007, 07:44 AM

I'm really tight in spots like this, contrary to most 2+2'ers, and normally err towards folding. In my experience whenever I look them up, it's a wiffed turn check-raise with a set.

I have 2 examples from yesterday where I wish I had folded, so maybe I'm being results orientated.

skegvegaspoker · #5 05-02-2007, 07:50 AM

No, I tend to agree with stig here. I think this is a missed turn check/raise too often to call. I really don't think we are good here 33% of the time, never mind the 41% of the time to break even. Often villains will push very strong hands on the river (zeebo) through desperation of losing value on earlier streets.

And although in your intro you said "overall (you) can't put them on a holding here which makes sense", I can only see a set as being one of the holdings that makes semi-sense.

I think its a fold.

CopTHIS · #6 05-02-2007, 07:54 AM

Yeah, I really really hate folding anything, yet alone aces dammit, but thinking you are good often enough here seems optimistic to me.

MATT111 · #7 05-02-2007, 07:57 AM

You played the hand well and I think you have to fold now.

FionnMac · #8 05-02-2007, 08:09 AM

Anyone bet the turn here?

stigmata · #9 05-02-2007, 08:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone bet the turn here?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have a good idea how to react to a check-raise.

binions · #10 05-02-2007, 09:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You played the hand well and I think you have to fold now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Smells like KK-QQ to me.