Rip my logic cause I'm a newbie

Propping Fool · #1 10-02-2006, 11:06 PM

I am thinking of blindly betting huge favorties in NFL and College (more so college). Moneyline bets only. A good example would be the colts titans game. For argument sake, lets say the line is -900. Cant the tiatns pull of an upset once every 9 or 10 times? I dont see it happening. I am totally new to sb though and looking for pros to explain why these bets are -ev.

I am only trying to make 5% on my br every week. the strategy is to bet as many games possible. Lets say I have a 10k br, then I find 15 games to bet...I would bet $666 per game. Of course there will be some upsets, but I am only looking to turn a profit of $500 for the week.

Rip away, Im sure this has been discussed before in this forum. I dont have the time or energy to get into sb deaply, so maybe this is my best play?

lastchance · #2 10-02-2006, 11:08 PM

This is awful. Big favorites are overvalued by the public a ton. You don't want to bet big favorites.

Propping Fool · #3 10-02-2006, 11:12 PM

Can you use the Colts example to elaborate please?

splashpot · #4 10-02-2006, 11:49 PM

As I understand it, the books know that the public overvalues the heavy favorites. And they shade the odds to reflect that assumption. So according to this theory, you'd be better off betting the underdogs. I'm not an expert on this though.

brendanb438 · #5 10-02-2006, 11:52 PM

OP if this truely was profitable longterm we all would be doing this. You will have some huge upsets every now and again and with the huge -1000 + odds 1 upset can set you back bigtime.

-Brendan

Propping Fool · #6 10-02-2006, 11:58 PM

I am going to evenly distibute my br per game. I am diversifying this way.

primetime32 · #7 10-02-2006, 11:59 PM

betting huge ML faves is a great idea until you lose 2 or 3 in a row and then your blow your whole bankroll.

beetman · #8 10-03-2006, 02:35 PM

Not necessarily. Even though the public loves big favorites, they don't like risking a lot. In terms of payouts (i.e. ignoring the point spread), the public often likes the longshots. The public gets around the "risking a lot" element by parlaying the big favorites, but when the favorites aren't parlay-able, you'll sometimes find value in the chalk. For example, with a lot of the YES/NO type Super Bowl props, the value lies in the chalky NO.

If you really saw Colts -900 I'd bet that in a heartbeat.

Lando · #9 10-03-2006, 03:17 PM

I've always thought that if you blindly bet the dogs it's barely +EV. But now I'm seeing how betting the HUGE favs (like Federer against Roddick) can be +EV.

So how good do you think a system would be that blindly bet SMALL dogs, and HUGE favs?

Am I on to something?

beetman · #10 10-03-2006, 06:40 PM

It all depends on the price. Some books with big tennis favorites will set the odds at +650 on the dog and -1000 on the favorite, and with the vig that high, the fair line might be -900 and neither bet is profitable. But if you could offer -700 on a betting exchange, you'd have a nice bet.

Basically it isn't as simple as being able to blindly bet for a profit.