Count my outs...

[meep_42]

Here's a hand that probably looks straightforward, but I didn't think so at the time...

The button is new to the game, but I've seen her limp 37s in EP and raise a turn donk on a 4567 board when the gutter hit. So, she seems pretty loose and aggressive with hands that may or may not warrant it.
The Hijack is pretty tight (he has limped QQ in EP earlier in the session) and usually only gets aggressive with what he thinks is the best hand.
MP is a pretty standard player for this limit, and doesn't really factor in the hand.
EP is a good aggressive and tricky player who is capable of betting and raising with both draws, made hands, and bluffs.

It's a full live 8/16 game, I'm in the BB with 33.

The four mentioned limp, SB folds, and I check my option.

5 to the flop for 5SB
Flop - 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I bet, EP calls, MP calls, Hijack calls, Button raises, I 3-bomb, all call to the button who caps, all call.

5 to the turn for 12.5BB
Turn - 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I check, EP bets, MP folds, Hijack raises, Button 3-bombs...

How many outs do I have? Should I call the 3 (and potentially 4) and fold the river UI in a ginormous pot?

-d

[bsnone]

How many outs do i have?

Well if you consider any full house a winner, you have 10 outs (3 2's, 3 7's, 3 6's, and 1 3) if someone hit their st8 flush on the turn you are hosed but i'm probably willing to take my chances (especially if there is Bad Beat Jackpot potential)

There is no question that you are behind here, if the hijack is tight and he is raising on a big money street with an obvious improvement card on the turn he probably has at least Kxhearts. But with a pot that is $200 before the turn, if the action is capped on the turn you are putting in $64 to win $456 I'm willing to draw to my boat.

I fold the river UI.

[atnels]

I've never seen a bad beat jackpot where full houses qualify....

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
I've never seen a bad beat jackpot where full houses qualify....

[/ QUOTE ]

there's an indian casino that just started a poker room nearby and the have aces full minimum qualifier.

[atnels]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've never seen a bad beat jackpot where full houses qualify....

[/ QUOTE ]

there's an indian casino that just started a poker room nearby and the have aces full minimum qualifier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, there you have it then.

[meep_42]

James pretty much had it nailed, which I couldn't do at the table -- I kept seeing button on 77 or 22 which I thought killed my outs. So, I did what I've never done before and folded a set on the turn. Both others called, and I averted suicide by seeing the Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hit the river.

EP - J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
HJ - Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Button K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

85% equity on the flop makes me cry.

-d

[R18A1I4]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I've never seen a bad beat jackpot where full houses qualify....

[/ QUOTE ]

there's an indian casino that just started a poker room nearby and the have aces full minimum qualifier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, there you have it then.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aces full of anything? Where I play it's aces full of tens excluding 3 aces on the board.

[tyler_cracker]

don't you live in Vegas? where are you playing 8/16 where 4 bets is a cap?

it's hard to imagine that you have the best hand right now, but there's no reason to believe that you are drawing to 1 out or less (lol 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). while it's possible someone has 77 or 66, the pot provides enough overlay to draw to your probably 10-outer.

i hate folding a set, but it has to be right UI, especially if facing multiple bets.

[meep_42]

To be clear, I'm not at all concerned with 54h.

-d

[Christian_Peters]

[ QUOTE ]
To be clear, I'm not at all concerned with 54h.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

While it is extremely unlikely, it is a reasonable holding for loose players given the preflop action. And most importantly, it does change the value of your hand (if only slightly).