Value bet or check behind Kings with rivered Ace?

[TimovieMan]

Poker Room – Limit .25/.50 – 8 players

Only about 30 hands played with both villains (so no stats), but seen them showdown enough to know this:

Villain 1 – Limpy McFish – plays any ace, any two suited and nearly any king as well, openlimps AKo on the button, will see showdown with any overcard (even if only king high), doesn’t bet trips, and calls down bottom pair on a 4-flush board.

Villain 2 – Tricky McFish – same preflop standards as Limpy (including openlimping with AK on the button, but raising decent pocket pairs), but very LAGgy postflop, especially on the river: he’ll bet air into a 4-flush (Clarkmeister anyone?), he’ll bluff-raise scare cards, but will also call down any ace high.


Pre-flop: hero is on the button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Tricky limps, UTG+1 (poster) checks, 3 folds, <font color="red">hero raises,</font> Limpy calls, BB folds, Tricky calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9 SB – 4 players)
Limpy, Tricky and UTG+1 check, <font color="red">hero bets,</font> Limpy calls, Tricky calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 BB – 3 players)
Limpy and Tricky check, <font color="red">hero bets,</font> Limpy calls, Tricky calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9 BB – 3 players)
Limpy and Tricky check, <font color="red">hero ???</font>


The river is one of the only three cards that scare me.
Neither of them have the spade flush, they would have donked the flop otherwise, AND shown aggression (especially Tricky). But since they’re seeing the river with me, they could have any spade, any board pair or small-medium pocket pair (no set), or any ace.

Limpy doesn’t scare me. If I bet, he’s going to call me, even if he has the ace. He won’t dare raise me (and if he does, it’s an easy fold).
The problem here is Tricky. If he has the ace, and I bet, he’s likely going to check-raise me. If he DOESN’T have the ace, he’s likely going to bluff-check-raise me, so I’ll have to call down.
Either way, I’m going to pay two for the showdown which I could get now for free…

So, do I (value) bet this, or do I simply check behind?

[ckj]

If you're going to be check-raised by the tricky player, than it's an easy check behind. It's difficult to gain value when you're going to be charged 2 bets, with a passive and a tricky player in the pot.

[Mitke]

Bet and call Tricky's raise - both have a pair they'll call with often enough and Tricky's tendency to spew will go a long way to compensate for the rare times you end up paying a legitimate raise.

[neurotiq]

Yes, bet this river.

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
Tricky

[/ QUOTE ]
This was the first word I saw in the post and that alone tells me you should check behind.

[Mitke]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tricky

[/ QUOTE ]
This was the first word I saw in the post and that alone tells me you should check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
Tricky McFish was the complete description I think and he's supposed to like bluffing a lot on scare cards, especially on the river.

Please can you be more specific in explaining your reasons for checking behind?

Are you worried he's been slowplaying a monster? OP doesn't seem to think that is the case.

Are you worried about an Ace, maybe the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

[marchron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tricky

[/ QUOTE ]
This was the first word I saw in the post and that alone tells me you should check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
Tricky McFish was the complete description I think and he's supposed to like bluffing a lot on scare cards, especially on the river.

Please can you be more specific in explaining your reasons for checking behind?

Are you worried he's been slowplaying a monster? OP doesn't seem to think that is the case.

Are you worried about an Ace, maybe the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

[/ QUOTE ]
Okay, fine, let's talk about the McFish part of the description. Do you think anyone who could be described as a fish will check/raise bluff . . . ever? Versus a guy who's shown nothing but strength?

If he's truly a fish, if you're betting you're folding to a raise. Always. And especially if Limpy has already called the first one, because he would be the type to check/call/call an Ace. If Tricky will bluff check/raise half the time he's in this situation, then you can feel safe betting and calling a raise (though I'd still be less likely to if it's not HU). But the rest of the time you must check behind, because you won't know how to handle a raise if he does.

[maverickai]

We need to calculate the EV of betting on the river, and we'll only be looking at the EV of the river action alone, based on the ranges you assigning to the villians.

I'll be assuming villians will call behind your bet:
you will win 2BB, and lose 1BB
EV=(2*0.51)+(-1*0.49)= 0.53BB

I'll be assuming limpy will call your bet, and tricky will raise, and all will call to showdown:
you will win 4BB, and lose 2BB
EV=(4*0.51)+(-2*0.49)= 1.06BB

So betting will yield +ve EV according to your stove results, and even if tricky raises, you might stand to gain more. However these results are very dependant on how you do your hand ranging.

If the stove results were to change to 30% for HERO, 70% for Tricky and Limpy, you will be having -ve EV for betting on the river.

[Mitke]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tricky

[/ QUOTE ]
This was the first word I saw in the post and that alone tells me you should check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]
Tricky McFish was the complete description I think and he's supposed to like bluffing a lot on scare cards, especially on the river.

Please can you be more specific in explaining your reasons for checking behind?

Are you worried he's been slowplaying a monster? OP doesn't seem to think that is the case.

Are you worried about an Ace, maybe the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

[/ QUOTE ]
Okay, fine, let's talk about the McFish part of the description. Do you think anyone who could be described as a fish will check/raise bluff . . . ever? Versus a guy who's shown nothing but strength?

If he's truly a fish, if you're betting you're folding to a raise. Always. And especially if Limpy has already called the first one, because he would be the type to check/call/call an Ace. If Tricky will bluff check/raise half the time he's in this situation, then you can feel safe betting and calling a raise (though I'd still be less likely to if it's not HU). But the rest of the time you must check behind, because you won't know how to handle a raise if he does.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, thanks for putting the time in to clarify your point.

From OP's description Tricky seemed like a maniacal type who could easily bluff c/r this river. Still, I probably overestimated the frequency that he'd do it. And like Aaron/w pointed out, it's still only 30 hands even if it often doesn't take much more to spot a bad player.

[TimovieMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Still, I probably overestimated the frequency that he'd do it. And like Aaron/w pointed out, it's still only 30 hands even if it often doesn't take much more to spot a bad player.

[/ QUOTE ]
So did I, because everytime I saw him bluff before, he was HU. Now it's not the case. And maybe he's realized by now he's NEVER folding Limpy, and I could very well have him beat. Since both scenarios have happened already in the session...