Pay Off Here?

[TheOneWizard]

I was still new to the table at this point so I didn't have any reads.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $64.65
UTG+1: $41.05
CO: $45.35
Button: $79.10
Hero: $48
BB: $61.40

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($2, 4 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $2</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, Button folds.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($6, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $6</font>, UTG calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($18, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $8</font>, Hero...?


I potted the flop and turn under the usual thinking that I had the best hand and needed to punish anyone who was drawing. Now after making Aces-up on the river and considering the underbet the general thinking is I should pay off here less I make myself completely bluffable. Yet in my experience at this level villain has the flush 100% of the time here. Should I save the $8?

[Sh@i'tan]

Don't pot the turn. Anyway i call here all day getting 3:1. Your ahead here more than you think.

[absoludicrous]

This seems like a value betted flush. However, with over 3:1 I make the call. You beat a lot of possible hands. Correct me if I'm wrong, but 1:3=33% meaning that if we can beat 67% of his possible range, we should make this call. Or is it, if we can beat 33% of his possible range we should call? I should know this answer. But I'm second guessing myself.

[Terry Tidy]

absoludicrous

In this case you're calling $8 into a pot already holding $26 ($18 and the $8 river bet). So you're getting odds of something like 9/4 (3.25)

So your hand needs to be good 33%+ to be EV+

As for the hand, I'd probably feel like folding then call, I think you might win only just 33% of the time.

[Sh@i'tan]

3:1 means you are putting in 1/4 of the final pot should you call. Which means you have to be good 25 percent of the time not 33 percent.

[Terry Tidy]

Absolutely right: 25% not 33%

My head isn't working today, I'll drink some booze quick so I can blame it on that.

[absoludicrous]

[ QUOTE ]
3:1 means you are putting in 1/4 of the final pot should you call. Which means you have to be good 25 percent of the time not 33 percent.

[/ QUOTE ]


(18+8+8=32)/8 = 4.25:1 = 25%....

[testaaja]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't pot the turn. Anyway i call here all day getting 3:1. Your ahead here more than you think.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ad617]

[ QUOTE ]

I potted the flop and turn under the usual thinking that I had the best hand and needed to punish anyone who was drawing. Now after making Aces-up on the river and considering the underbet the general thinking is I should pay off here less I make myself completely bluffable. Yet in my experience at this level villain has the flush 100% of the time here. Should I save the $8?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I don't like potting the turn. A good player would stick in a raise, which would be very confusing/expensive for you.

Second, I think that you shouldn't worry about being bluffable here. This river screams value bet and only a weak player would bet a hand worse than Aces up here any significant amount of the time. In addition, if you fold here, you can pay off next time when there is a greater probability that someone is taking a shot at you.

Just my $0.02.

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[Stealthy]

Does anybody else prefer that Hero leads the river for $8-$10 rather than the other way around and fold to a raise?