Do You Fold the River

scott2130 · #1 11-14-2007, 09:29 AM

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, CO calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (8.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero ?

Fadook · #2 11-14-2007, 09:32 AM

Bet/fold the river. As played I call.

LateFlag · #3 11-14-2007, 09:36 AM

Bet/Fold > Check/Call >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>&gt ; Check/Fold

Douglas Leslie · #4 11-14-2007, 09:43 AM

Unless I know the pre-flop raise is likely to be a bit loose, I just call here.
Why check the river? I prefer to bet and fold if I get raised.

scott2130 · #5 11-14-2007, 12:36 PM

If you bet fold the river, how many times can you do this at the same table before the other players notice and start bluffing at you? Aren't you concerned this will make you an easy mark?

chr1s82p · #6 11-14-2007, 12:53 PM

but when you have the best hand you would also bet. how can your opponent figure out what you are holding at a given point of time then?

scott2130 · #7 11-14-2007, 01:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
but when you have the best hand you would also bet. how can your opponent figure out what you are holding at a given point of time then?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was trying to figure out what he was holding. And you figure it out by his actions.

He cold called 3 bets pre-flop. On a .5/1 table that usually narrows the hands down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs and KQs. Then he called me down to the river.

Based on my play he had to think I had an A, so if he couldn't beat an A why bet the river? The board paired the K and the flush draw got there so it is very possible he made his hand.

LateFlag · #8 11-14-2007, 01:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I was trying to figure out what he was holding. And you figure it out by his actions.

He cold called 3 bets pre-flop. On a .5/1 table that usually narrows the hands down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs and KQs. Then he called me down to the river.

Based on my play he had to think I had an A, so if he couldn't beat an A why bet the river? The board paired the K and the flush draw got there so it is very possible he made his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is all fine except that you're giving your opponent way too much credit.

Villain is already known to be an donkey because only donkeys call three cold on the flop. It follows from this that villain wasn't spending a lot of time deducing that you must have a made hand by the river. He was just thinking about whatever it is donkeys think about during the hand, which probably involves little cartoon figures dancing around in a thought bubble or something. On the river, you checked to him and he interrupted his donkey-dreams to think "I have an ace + there's an ace on board = bet." Or "maybe he'll fold if I bet my 66." And he ended up being right because you out-thought yourself.

Most villains aren't very good poker players. Villains who call three cold on the flop definitely aren't very good poker players. Inferrences that you draw on their behavior that are based on an assumption that your opponent plays like you do will very often be wrong, and they'll very often cost you money. In this case, I'd say there's about a 60% chance that you folded the best hand.

bozlax · #9 11-14-2007, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He cold called 3 bets pre-flop. On a .5/1 table that usually narrows the hands down to AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AKs and KQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

LateFlag's post is excellent. The only thing I'd add is that the above statement is 180 degrees off...the fact that he cold-called 3 bets pf almost completely removes ALL of those hands from consideration (without a read to the contrary), as they'd get capped.

Further, without a read his preflop cold-call should make you think that he's very, very passive, meaning that he'll call way more hands on the river than he'll bet.

The only possible reason for checking this river is if your read is that Villan is aggressive enough to a) bluff-raise if you bet, and b) bet any hand he carried to the river if you check, so if you check it should be with the intention of calling.

bozlax · #10 11-14-2007, 01:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you bet fold the river, how many times can you do this at the same table before the other players notice and start bluffing at you? Aren't you concerned this will make you an easy mark?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming that micro-donks pay attention. You also assume that you'll be at the same table with a micro-donk that's paying attention for long enough for him to see you do this enough times for him to notice. You also assume that none of those times you'll call or re-pop his raise ftw, puting his read in the shitter.

In short: metagame is meaningless in micro games.

stm