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#1
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NL 100: Whats my play here with a set
Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $0.50/$1 5 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: $53.07 CO: $605.01 Button: $100.40 Hero: $117.45 BB: $35 Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $2</font>, CO calls, Button folds, Hero calls, BB folds. Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($7, 3 players) <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $5</font>, UTG folds, CO calls. Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($17, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises all-in $598.01</font>, Villain is 48/28 and willing to gamble |
#2
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Re: NL 100: Whats my play here with a set
your play is fine, i dont see how you can get away from this hand, i have to put your opponent on high pocket pairs... or unluckly he has 44, or A4
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#3
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Re: NL 100: Whats my play here with a set
[ QUOTE ]
your play is fine, i dont see how you can get away from this hand, i have to put your opponent on high pocket pairs... or unluckly he has 44, or A4 [/ QUOTE ] O RLY? this is clearly "put him on a hand we beat so we can call." i'm not sure how i feel about a turn bet here...we're turning our set into a bluff. pretty sure calling this is suicidal, but i suppose he doesn't have to have two pair/set/flush draw/weak overpair THAT often to make this call neutral after we've dumped 20-something dollars into the pot. |
#4
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Re: NL 100: Whats my play here with a set
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] your play is fine, i dont see how you can get away from this hand, i have to put your opponent on high pocket pairs... or unluckly he has 44, or A4 [/ QUOTE ] O RLY? this is clearly "put him on a hand we beat so we can call." i'm not sure how i feel about a turn bet here...we're turning our set into a bluff. pretty sure calling this is suicidal, but i suppose he doesn't have to have two pair/set/flush draw/weak overpair THAT often to make this call neutral after we've dumped 20-something dollars into the pot. [/ QUOTE ] Are you playing the same game and opponents that I do? I would not write off the possiblity that villain has 44 or A4, but I'm certainly not going to assume it. Villain is the big stack, and apparently is bullying the table. I have no problem imagining him making this bet with Ah2h, any 2 pair,22, 33, 55, 77, or even 2 broadway hearts. Worst possible scenario is 4x. And even if we assume that possibility, we have either 10 outs to win and either 2 or 3 to tie. I'm going to give the highest possible probibility to villain having A4, because I think 24, 34, 44 and 54 raise the flop. I think that given the situation, the villain's stats, and a 28% chance to win or split if we are beaten, and the fact that we would really really like to get deeper vs this villain. I'm going to call. |
#5
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Re: NL 100: Whats my play here with a set
Now is your turn to gamble. Call.
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#6
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Re: NL 100: Whats my play here with a set
i wouldn't have led this turn for starters
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#7
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Re: NL 100: Whats my play here with a set
Check call the turn. As played, I don't see how you are good here.
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#8
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Re: NL 100: Whats my play here with a set
CALLLLLL. For one you have a set against a 48/28. But more importantly, he's 600 deep atm. You should be gambling to get deeper with this guy for sure. While calling here might actually be slightly -EV(he does have 4's in his range), its so +EV to get deep with this guy its ridiculous.
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#9
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Re: NL 100: Whats my play here with a set
i'm feeling so n00b cause i think this is an easy call.
edit: now i see that villian wasnt the pf raiser. Hmn... Ok, check call plz. as played, not sure, but i would prolly call. |
#10
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Re: NL 100: Whats my play here with a set
Hmmm...given the chance to think about this, and knowing Villain bets a large range of hands (28% raised pf?), no turn is "safe" except a 4. If you want to isolate Villain, wouldn't that best be done preflop? Otherwise, I'm folding the pair on the flop, simply because it is very likely Villain will come after me on the turn and I will almost certainly not know what to do (i.e., I think there will be better opportunities to take Villain's money).
I am open to other thoughts on this... |
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