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#1
05-14-2006, 06:34 PM
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no hand, small pot, oh well
villain is 40/17/.7 after 30 hands
100/200 4 handed co folds, button raises, sb folds, i call in bb with K6o flop 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] i check, button checks turn A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] i check, button bets, i call river Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] i check intending to fold if he bets hmm... pretty dangerous 
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#3
05-14-2006, 06:52 PM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
Eh I hate it when unknowns check the flop like that. I'd still bet the turn as I think a significant amount of time as people with those stats often check the flop with air. The ace can be a scare card for him too. Even if he has an ace he may just call since the 3 straight is on the board. If he doesn't have an ace you may get him to fold and avoid folding the best hand on the river.
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#4
05-15-2006, 02:33 PM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
i like this play, for the same reasons discussed by DeathDonkey, in fact i won a hand yesterday when i used it (admittedly it was my first time doing so) and i had position [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])
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#6
05-15-2006, 08:55 AM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd fold the turn. Bet-folding the turn seems better than check-calling. [/ QUOTE ] Betting accomplishes nothing. True [/ QUOTE ] It folds air and keeps us from getting bluffed off the best hand.
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#7
05-15-2006, 02:41 PM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'd fold the turn. Bet-folding the turn seems better than check-calling. [/ QUOTE ] Betting accomplishes nothing. True [/ QUOTE ] It folds air and keeps us from getting bluffed off the best hand. [/ QUOTE ] If you bet you can be bluff raised, check/calling costs the same bets, but when you bet you will only put a bet in when behind. True
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#8
05-15-2006, 03:14 PM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
[ QUOTE ]
If you bet you can be bluff raised, check/calling costs the same bets, but when you bet you will only put a bet in when behind. True [/ QUOTE ] Check calling requires that he will bluff a LARGE % of the time when he doesn't have an A, K, 2, 3, 4, or 5. Those cards take up a large portion of the deck. So he has to be capable of bluffing with pretty much no hope of winning unimproved a significant percentage of the time he has trash. Knowing that information requires a read. If he is capable of bluffing the turn I think calling isn't such a bad play. To be honest I could be wrong about the turn. I'm just trying to debate the other side. To be honest I could be wrong I'm just trying to debate one side of it. I ran a pokerstove and I put villian in an either/or situation. He either had a monster (trips or better and PP's plus draw) or complete air. So if he steals 35% of the time and if plays both monsters or air this way 100% of the time we have enough equity to call the turn. Board: 2s 3h 5c As Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 58.4098 % 58.41% 00.00% { AA, 55-22, A7s+, A4s, K7s+, K5s, K3s, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, A7o+, A4o, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o } Hand 2: 41.5902 % 41.59% 00.00% { Kc6d } We have barely enough equity to call the river but I think he checks enough to turn this into a fold on the river. Still, with such a light read on the guy I think him betting the turn 100% of the time with air is a bold assumption. For all of you saying "it's close" would you mind showing me at least some rough calcs so I can understand your line of thought?
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#9
05-14-2006, 06:54 PM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
I like it. River is close.
-DeathDonkey
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#10
05-14-2006, 07:05 PM
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Re: no hand, small pot, oh well
May I ask you why you like the turn play, and why you think it's close on the river?
If he has an Ace we do not have odds to draw unless you can make up 7 BB's on the river. If he has a K we are out kicked. If he has a Q we are screwed on the river so I don't see how it's close to calling. Basically that leaves us ahead of high card J and T. Since he seems to be a 40/17 odds are rather high (at least in the 10/20) he doesn't play according to position. So that basically puts his hand range here at: 66+,A5s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+ Therefore a 17% PFR leaves us beating J9s and JTs. Not a whole lot of combo's there.
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