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#1
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Something you guys dont do enough
Shoving over late position short stacker opens. The ranges here are just an example and feel free to make your own. My math reflects these ranges and shows you on the EV you are missing out on.
You have a few situations Assume 20bb stacks 1) shortstacker 3x otb and you are the BB. There is their raise + sb + bb in the pot or 4.5bb. So you are risking 19bb to win 4.5bb. If we use these ranges (the shortstackers will adjust and you will have to adjust your range accordingly) equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 66.810% 65.48% 01.33% 26771923296 542041176.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ } Hand 1: 33.190% 31.86% 01.33% 13026964656 542041176.00 { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } So in this 40.5bb pot when called you will have 33.2% equity, or 13.45bb, so when your shove is called you lose 19-13.45bb or 5.55bb. So this means that 0 (breakeven) = x*4.5bb -(1-x)*5.5bb is the breakeven point 0=4.5x - 5.5 +5.5x 5.5 = 10x x= 0.55 This means you only have to win the pot 55% of the time to be breakeven. Now let's revist the shortstackers range - { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ } - this compromises 5.1% of hands. Many shortstackers attempt to steal is as high as 40%. 5.1/40 = 12.75%. They are only calling you ~13% of the time. of a required 45%. This is hugely +EV for you. huge. and hugely -EV for them and who wants them ruining our games anymore amirite? ---------------------------------------------------------- You can figure this out for a few more situations. The pot will always be the same so you only have to change a few things in our equation. if they minraise out of the sb 0 (breakeven) = x*3bb -(1-x)*5.5bb 0 = 4x -5.5 +5.5x 5.5 = 9.5x x = 58% They don't have to fold much more often. But skier, what if they widen their range? Example A) equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 56.722% 54.42% 02.30% 69847911740 2951209546.00 { 44+, A5s+, KTs+, A7o+, KQo } Hand 1: 43.278% 40.98% 02.30% 52593703184 2951209546.00 { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } This time their calling range comrpomises 15.8% of total hands. or 40% of their opening range. BUT our equity is better this time so in a 40.5bb pot we have 43.3% or 17.54bb. So now our equation is: 0 (breakeven) = x*4.5bb -(1-x)*1.46bb 0 = 4.5 - 1.46 +1.46 1.46 = 5.96x x = 24.5% Since they are folding 60% of their range this is hugely +EV. Discuss. |
#2
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Re: Something you guys dont do enough
DOWN WITH SHORTSTACKERS
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#3
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Re: Something you guys dont do enough
agreed
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#4
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Re: Something you guys dont do enough
I just wanna add that you wanna be careful and make sure they are actually playing like this because they may adjust their opening range and make shoving some hands -EV, but if you keep track of how they are adjusting and keep stats you should be fine.
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#5
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Re: Something you guys dont do enough
good post, i do this a lot basically SNG style and agree that they fold a lot, some guys even 80% of the time
they don't adjust either obviously seeing as they are usually doing everything off a playbook |
#6
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Re: Something you guys dont do enough
can't wait for OnYourBike's response
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#7
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Re: Something you guys dont do enough
this is a very flawed post. you compare how profitable our 3betting range { 22+, A2s+, K6s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo } to their calling range { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ } in the first example. you say that we're going to make money when we shove. great.
but our 3betting range includes hands like AA that we're obviously shoving with obviously +EV. we just need to look at how we do with the bottom of our proposed range, a hand like JTo. if we're making money with AA, losing money with JTo, and making money on net then our range is still bad. we should only be pushing the individual hands that make money against his range (maybe a little more for meta). |
#8
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Re: Something you guys dont do enough
[ QUOTE ]
if we're making money with AA, losing money with JTo, and making money on net then our range is still bad. [/ QUOTE ] if we're making money on net, cause he's folding a decent amount, given his attempt to steal is fairly high which was stated in op, how is our range still bad? |
#9
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Re: Something you guys dont do enough
Man, now I have to readjust to this?
FU skiier. |
#10
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Re: Something you guys dont do enough
[ QUOTE ]
Man, now I have to readjust to this? FU skiier. [/ QUOTE ] hahaha nice skier |
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