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#1
09-28-2007, 12:35 AM
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What IS Luck?
I'm curious in hearing other peoples perceptions of "luck". It is after all whatever we believe it is, dynamically tuned to us. Interesting topic I think and there is a lot of debate on the subject.
I think "luck" is an illusion that we create in our minds because of emotional attachment, not truth. We create this illusion because then we can blame something or someone other then ourselves for the bad results we often get through bad play. Results tell the truth. I live in a casino town and you see purple haired lady's talking all the time about how unlucky they were while gambling. How can you possibly expect to beat a game that you have a - edge in and then blame it on something other then you? Seems to define the word insanity! 
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#3
09-28-2007, 12:47 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
luck is all the factors influencing what happens to you that are outside of your direct or indirect control. [/ QUOTE ] And what might those factors be?
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#4
09-28-2007, 12:50 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] luck is all the factors influencing what happens to you that are outside of your direct or indirect control. [/ QUOTE ] And what might those factors be? [/ QUOTE ] In alphabetical order, plz, Sephus
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#5
09-28-2007, 12:59 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] luck is all the factors influencing what happens to you that are outside of your direct or indirect control. [/ QUOTE ] And what might those factors be? [/ QUOTE ] A few examples: Female hormonal cycle Card shuffle Some portion of frisbee trajectory Death by meteorite
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#6
09-28-2007, 12:59 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] luck is all the factors influencing what happens to you that are outside of your direct or indirect control. [/ QUOTE ] And what might those factors be? [/ QUOTE ] In alphabetical order, plz, Sephus [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#8
09-28-2007, 03:32 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
Let me re phrase what I meant which I think came out wrong.
"Results tell the truth." should be "Results don't lie in the long run" We can only calculate our EV by documenting results over a statistically significant sample. If results don't tell the truth then the EV we think we have doesn't really exist?
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#9
09-28-2007, 05:19 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
"Results don't lie in the long run" [/ QUOTE ] Nothing says you have to play enough to hit the long run. If you play Russian roulette, you won't hit the long run. You can still talk about getting lucky, or that someone else was unlucky. A casual player who usually plays for small stakes but who takes a shot at the WSOP main event is probably not going to hit the long run in MTTs in their lifetime. By the way, it seems to be a common misconception that there is some magic threshold below which results are meaningless, and above which results are meaningful. In fact, as you accumulate data from repeated experiments, your results gradually become more accurate reflections of your expected value, and they do not ever become perfect. [ QUOTE ] We can only calculate our EV by documenting results over a statistically significant sample. [/ QUOTE ] Wrong. We can estimate EV by creating applicable mathematical models and analyzing them. These models do not have to be perfect to give much better information than the results alone.
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#10
09-28-2007, 12:53 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
Luck is a term I would use to describe short-term deviations from expectations.
[ QUOTE ] I'm curious in hearing other peoples perceptions of "luck". It is after all whatever we believe it is, dynamically tuned to us. Interesting topic I think and there is a lot of debate on the subject. [/ QUOTE ] Are you wanting to debate semantics? [ QUOTE ] I think "luck" is an illusion that we create in our minds because of emotional attachment, not truth. We create this illusion because then we can blame something or someone other then ourselves for the bad results we often get through bad play. Results tell the truth. [/ QUOTE ] This is nonsense. The best players in the world can complain about bad luck. You and I play a simple game. If a coin comes up heads I win $2. If the coin comes up tails I lose $1. If we play the game 20 times and I lose money, can I complain about my bad luck? [ QUOTE ] I live in a casino town and you see purple haired lady's talking all the time about how unlucky they were while gambling. How can you possibly expect to beat a game that you have a - edge in and then blame it on something other then you? Seems to define the word insanity! [/ QUOTE ] I think it is insane to let other people's ignorance bewilder you.
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