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#1
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AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
These late / v. deep decisions give me trouble...
23 people left in the $10 20k tourney on Stars. Villain hasn't been stealing like crazy. Can I fold this? I fold I'm left with ~250k chips - about average, and 25 BB's If the answer is yes, I can fold - how small does my stack need to be for a fold to be out of the question? 150k? 100k? PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t10000 (7 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Button (t88240) SB (t200986) BB (t759452) UTG (t117934) Hero (t286278) MP2 (t337451) CO (t498055) Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t40000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t280000</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font> |
#2
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
i beat him into the pot nh
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#3
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
I wouldn't consider folding with 200K or less, since then I'd need <=40% equity to make the call. I'd call here as well.
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#4
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
with your read I can't see ever folding here
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#5
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
Hero's read is that villain is reasonable. Hero made a 4x raise indicating a strong hand that didn't want a call. Villain responded by saying let's play for stacks. Hero is never ahead in this spot based on Hero's read. Villains range (1010+, AK+) Hero folds because there is no sense in flipping at this point in the tourney. The only reason I will change my mind is if Hero had been active giving villain a reason to think that Hero is fos. obtw Why the 4x raise? ~loose |
#6
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
raise less pf.
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#7
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
[ QUOTE ]
Hero's read is that villain is reasonable. Hero made a 4x raise indicating a strong hand that didn't want a call. Villain responded by saying let's play for stacks. Hero is never ahead in this spot based on Hero's read. Villains range (1010+, AK+) Hero folds because there is no sense in flipping at this point in the tourney. The only reason I will change my mind is if Hero had been active giving villain a reason to think that Hero is fos. obtw Why the 4x raise? ~loose [/ QUOTE ] my bad...that's two i've misread...too tired I guess...must be why I keep losing all these races [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] fatigue! |
#8
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
Unless villian has been extra tight or you have a read that he never 3 bet bluffs you are frequently ahead in this spot and AJ and pure bluffs are not out of villians range, but AA and KK may be. Call.
And raise less pre. One good reason for smaller bet sizes is to leave you more room to manuver with 3 and 4 betting. Obv he donk shoved and you have no room to manuver in this case, but I don't take the fact that he shoved over a 4x raise to mean too much if Hero had been opening fairly regularly for 4x. edit: I can't read. |
#9
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
With 28 BBs effective, I'd make it 25K to go PF, but making is 40K really isn't that big of a deal.
As played, we have two options: 1) Call all-in. So, we simply need to calculate our equity against villain's hand range. Then figure out how much it costs us and if we are getting the right price (our remaining stack : our remaining stack + the money in the pot already). Or 2) Fold. Seems pretty easy to me. Just run the numbers. So...we have to call 246K to win 301K (1.22:1). So we need about 45% equity against his hand range (probably a little less b/c I don't know what the antes are and didn't include them). equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 50.106% 38.23% 11.88% 25529440 7931059.00 { AsKd } Hand 1: 49.894% 38.02% 11.88% 25388298 7931059.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ } equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 10936805 7456889.50 { AsKd } Hand 1: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 20381624 7456889.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo } So yeah, depending on his range, I'd say it's pretty close. With antes this might be a shove even if his range is JJ+,AK+. Sherman |
#10
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Re: AK deep in a $10 MTT, reraise from a big stack. Insta-call?
Call with pot odds and so on, but I agree villain usually has TT+, AK.
I don't think a 4x raise is necessarily bad in a $10 MTT, despite the fact that all the pros in HSMTT raise 2.5xBB with everything. Here, the 4x in early position sort of turns your hand face up, and actually gives you a harder decision to a reraise. |
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