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#1
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)
Hero (t5595) SB (t3490) BB (t1530) UTG (t1810) MP (t1075) Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t450</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t3565</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero? Villain is a profitable regular, though I've seen him doing a few weird things. I hadn't yet been abusing my big stack, so it seems like he's probably on a pretty tight range to come over the top at me. Call or fold? |
#2
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I think here given the stack sizes with the three other under 1800 u can fold here, leaving u behind with 5000. Plus u said hes tight id fold.
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#3
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i never ever fold this
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#4
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Neva eva? I'm the thinnest of favorites against a range of {KK-99,AQ+}. I'm not sure that villain would shove 22bbs with AJ, so widening his range is probably to my detriment. Flipping a coin with t600 in overlay is pretty good, I guess, especially since I'd have a healthy stack even if I lost. But I felt at the time that if I folded I could ensure myself a big stack going into the bubble with which to bully the other players.
I just did some rough ICM calculations which suggest a fold. Going into the hand, my equity is around $45. If I call and win, my equity increases to $57, but if I call and lose, my equity plummets to $26. Basically, the chips I could win from this confrontation are worth far less than the chips I could lose. |
#5
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this basically is a +EV situation everytime
3100 to win 4150. and you are in front of this range equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 51.266% 41.61% 09.66% 410377020 95249082.00 { AKo } Hand 1: 48.734% 39.08% 09.66% 385411920 95249082.00 { KK-99, AQs+, AQo+ } so i'd never ever fold this here |
#6
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The trouble is that I believe this situation is +cEV without being +$EV.
If I fold, my equity is $43.18. If I call and win, my equity is $57.73. If I call and lose, my equity is $26.55. My combined equity if I call is found in the following equation: (%win)($win) + (%lose)($lose) = $EV (0.513)(57.73) + (0.487)(26.55) = $42.55 So you'll note that my expectation from a call is lower than my expectation from a fold. So unless I think that villain is pushing AJ or worse, I need to fold in this spot. I think AKs would be a very narrow call. |
#7
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I would raise t375-400 and probably fold to the push
I call against an unknown edit: It`s read-depended, so I might call against a reg if he/she puts me on a wide opening-range |
#8
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you are looking at tt+, i fold. and i would just raise to 400.
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#9
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Fold, but then again OP you did the math [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#10
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Ha, it just didn't occur to me to do the math until after I actually posted.
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