Week 12 NFL player props thread

[silentbob]

Hoping for a turnaround this week.

Tony Romo under 3 TD passes at -115 for 2 units (Bodog). This line has been pounded down to -140 in the past hour, sorry for not posting this sooner. The Jets haven't given up more than 3 passing TDs in any game since Mangini took over. In fact, they've given up 3 passing TDs only twice, and once this season (Brady in Week 1). The Jets give up a ton of yards but actually don't concede many TDs generally and have been fairly stout in recent weeks. My sense is that this bet loses about 15 percent of the time, but the push percentage may be fairly high, so it's not clear how much edge there is here. But there is definitely an edge IMO.

YTD: 28-22, +4.65 units

[rsigley]

posted this in the turkey day thread, but

kitna o265.5 passing yards (-110)
kitna o36.5 pass attempts (-120)
marion barber o92.5 rushing + receiving (-120)

detroit seems to have abandoned the running game since their bye week + i think they'll be playing from behind most of the day so they'll be throwing a lot

jets worst defense for barber bet

[silentbob]

I was also ready to jump on Favre under 318.5/-115 but while doing some analysis the line moved to 310.5/-135, which isn't nearly as appealing. One more:

Reggie Wayne over 82.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (VIP/BetGameDay). Betting a soft line more than anything else. Bodog is offering 92.5/-125 for the over. I have Wayne projected in the high 80s, although many seem to think that he'll finish with over 100.

BTW, the Marion Barber rushing+receiving yards line is 75.5/-130 on VIP/BetGameDay. I considered playing for a middle but the juice probably ain't worth the squeeze.

[1MoreFish4U]

I placed a couple.

Skybook T Jones -12.5 > rush yds than J Jones +125
Greek R Williams under 5.5 receptions +120

[rsigley]

[ QUOTE ]


BTW, the Marion Barber rushing+receiving yards line is 75.5/-130 on VIP/BetGameDay. I considered playing for a middle but the juice probably ain't worth the squeeze.

[/ QUOTE ]

wish i wasn't banned from VIP [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I won 5 bets in a row there and they said my action isn't welcome, makes no sense

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
wish i wasn't banned from VIP [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
I must really suck, for having played there for 2 years and not been banned yet. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Anyway, free middle on Donald Driver receiving yards:

Over 69.5 -110 (VIP/BetGameDay)
Under 73.5 +110 (Bodog)

[Paul B.]

Party has Drew Brees > Vinny Testaverde in passing yards -182. Vinny may not start but it's good enough for a max bet anyway.