Big fold or push? Bellagio $3000 Single Table Satellite Hand

[NYWalker]

Bellagio $3000 Single Table Satellite, winner takes 25k seat.

25000 starting chips, 20 minute round, 100/200.
Villain is Juha Helppi. This is the first time I play with him, no read. 8 handed. Juha has 48500, he busted one guy in the first round. I have 55000. My showdowns were good, AA, JJ, etc...

Blind 200/400. Fold to Juha on the button. He raises to 1200. SB folds. I look down A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I call.

Two players. 2600 pot.

Flop T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

I bet 2400. This maniac villain moves all-in for 47500 into 5000 pot.

Hero?

If this is a $500 satellite, I'd call in no time. But, for $3000 satellite, do we gamble at this early stage?

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If this is a $500 satellite, I'd call in no time. But, for $3000 satellite, do we gamble at this early stage?

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Aside from perhaps quality of players, why should our decision differ?

Back to the hand... I'd put his range as 4dXd, some kind of straight flush draw, and sets. I can't imagine he'd do this with a bare flush draw or JJ+.

Since I assume this is WTA, I might take this gamble because a) you're never destroyed by any part of his range, and b) this is a good chance to sieze a huge chip lead and knock out one of the better opponents.

[NYWalker]

All responses are good!

The problem is : this is the second hand I played with him. The first hand I played with him was one or two orbits ago, a loose player from Commerce raised CO to 1200, Juha called from the button and I reraised from the BB to 4000 with JJ. They both called. On a rag board, I led out 1/2 of my stack betting 10000. CO folded and Juha took a long time to fold. Other than that, no information about how he play. I dont remember his hands in WPT TVs.

For this hand, I really put him on a set of TT and believed I only had outs for flush draw. I folded.

But from later plays with him, I found he's a really bad player - actullay a fish (per 2+2 standards).

For example, he'd raise 3BB with A4o and calls a big re-raise push from behind and lost the hand... his hands has no showdown value at all, 90% are making foolish moves to get people off the hands.

For the 3000 satellite, because we are so deep and the pot isn't quite large enough for a 50K push, I didn't want to take the risk when playing with an unknown players. If I had known his play before the hand, it's a call.

Anyway, take this information. When you sit down with him you can catch the fish.

[betgo]

The overbet push on a 2-flush board is not usually a set. Most people want action for a set. He is representing a strong flush draw (with pair or straight draw; he doesn't have Ad), but he could have a weaker flush draw, an over pair, or 2-pair. Given all information about villain, I think this is a borderline call.

[NYWalker]

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Given all information about villain, I think this is an easy call.

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[Crazy Cypriot]

I have played with Juha both in Austria and in Paris and indeed he is a suprisingly bad player. Against a strong thinking player who would play two pair or a set in a similar way (even though they are less likely) u are not getting the right odds , as a previous poster said u r not getting even 6 to 5. The fact that its winner takes all makes it a very marginal decision and a decision which will be made based on ur feel on the hand. I understand the laydown and i believe that a good amount of time its the right decision

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
If this is a $500 satellite, I'd call in no time. But, for $3000 satellite, do we gamble at this early stage?

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lol? What is the connection>

[Eagles]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If this is a $500 satellite, I'd call in no time. But, for $3000 satellite, do we gamble at this early stage?

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lol? What is the connection>

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I'd say the opposite is true. I'd rather call in the $3000 than in a $500.

[shaundeeb]

since it's WTA it appears from the open thing you have to call , you have 12-15 outs and sometimes may even be ahead.

[JSchnett]

i think he has a smaller fd here a decent amount and in a winner take all sat i think its a call.