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#1
08-01-2006, 03:24 PM
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This is NOT the Guy to Pick a Fight With. So Let\'s Break it Down. 6M
PP NL 100, 6-max, 6-handed
What hand do I need to call with? What hand do you think Villain had? What hand do you think I had? Hero has $220; Villain covers. Reads: Villain is about 24/12/2 in 1k hands. He has made moves before; he made bluffs on scare cards; he has gone stretches where he plays like a rock; he can be tricky. I respect him -- he's not spectactular, but certainly no donk. I think he respects me enough, too. Preflop: Hero is Button with XX. Villain raises UTG to $4, folds to Hero, Hero re-raises to $15, Villain calls. Flop: ($31) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Villain checks, Hero bets $26, Villain calls. Turn: ($83) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Villain checks, Hero bets $65, Villain shoves. 
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#3
08-01-2006, 03:29 PM
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Re: This is NOT the Guy to Pick a Fight With. So Let\'s Break it Down.
I don't know what your image is, but against a solid player and when I'm not in superhigh gear I would check behind on the turn unless I were bluffing/had a set.
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#4
08-01-2006, 03:36 PM
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Re: This is NOT the Guy to Pick a Fight With. So Let\'s Break it Down.
I would need QQ, 66, or 77 to feel comfortable here. I'm still calling with 22, and I probably call with KK/AA like a donk in the heat of the moment, though I think they should be folds. I think if he was going to make a move with a draw he would have done it on the flop, I thikn the turn push is > 2 pair most of the time
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#5
08-01-2006, 03:41 PM
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Re: This is NOT the Guy to Pick a Fight With. So Let\'s Break it Down.
Isn't his line a standard line for AA,KK (or, I suppose .. maaaaybe, A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a set)? He doesn't really think you're putting yourself in a spot to fold getting 2:1, does he?
Edit: changed "A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or QQ" to "A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a set" .. not really sure, but I think it's better
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#6
08-01-2006, 03:51 PM
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Re: This is NOT the Guy to Pick a Fight With. So Let\'s Break it Down.
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't his line a standard line for AA,KK (or, I suppose .. maaaaybe, A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or QQ)? He doesn't really think you're putting yourself in a spot to fold getting 2:1, does he? [/ QUOTE ] EXACTLY what I thought. He knows my re-raising range is pretty wide, so I thought he might be trapping with AA, KK, or even QQ. But I felt it was more likely to be one of the formers. Incidentally, I called, I was ahead, and I lost the hand. No one has guessed my hand yet.
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#8
08-01-2006, 04:43 PM
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Re: This is NOT the Guy to Pick a Fight With. So Let\'s Break it Down.
What's the Villian's read on the Hero's button play?
If the villian has QQ/77/22, he's willing to check it twice to the Hero before dropping the hammer. If the villian respects the hero's play, then he has to know a check behind is possible on the turn. That's pretty risky given the FD. I think the villian has to have a draw or bluff, and the Hero has a pair AA/KK, a set(QQ,77,22), two-pair (76), FD or a bluff.
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#9
08-01-2006, 04:53 PM
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Re: This is NOT the Guy to Pick a Fight With. So Let\'s Break it Down.
There is no way that Villain is bluffing here. It woudl require an enormous amount of very high level thinking and an intimate knowledge of epdaw's play to thikn he can make him fold an overpair for 110 more in a >300 pot. Villain's line, it seems to me, may as well come with naked women dancing about holding neon signs that read "I HAVE A STRONG HAND"
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