random half theory question (maybe lc)

[philipsaurus]

let's say you're sitting at a 5/10nl table. you have 2500 in front of you. giant fish (let's say 75/50/3) also has 2500. there is a good TAG at the table and he has 1500. other 3 people at the table are nits.

ok. let's say it folds around you to the button and you make a standard raise to 35 with JJ. TAG button unexplicably goes all in and you KNOW he has AKo.

OR if that is unrealistic for you. we can pretend that you call a raise pf and flop an openended straight flush draw with overcards and the TAG just randomly shoves.

ok, so the point is, you are 55/45 to win the hand. obv though, if you lose, your stack will be much less than the fish and it might be tough to double through anyone else at the table.

do you call?

[Big_Jim]

Clear fold.

EV of big stack with fish >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>> EV of this call.

EDIT: Assuming capped buy in.

[philipsaurus]

ok fine, then at what point would call?

if you were 60% against his range?

im just making this point because earlier, i think i made a river fold when im fairly certain i had the best hand because i wanted a big stack to tangle with a fish.

edit: maybe not "fairly" certain. but i think i would have called otherwise.

[DJ Sensei]

Well, part of me wants to agree with Jim that you need to keep your big stack to tangle with the fish. But at the same time, if you avoid confrontation with the TAGs, you'll become exploitable and lose EV...

So I guess its a judgment call. I think if i was confident that I had a solid edge in a hand, I'd take it to the felt no matter who else was at the table, because passing up on that wouldn't be made up for by the EV of the fish being there.

I guess you just have to estimate how much of that fish's stack you expect to be able to take given the table situation, and how much you expect to take if you didn't have a full stack. The difference is the EV that you have to have in order to tangle with the TAG.


Good question, phil.

[Big_Jim]

I'm having difficulty trying to quantify how much it is really worth to have the fish covered.

Only a very small percentage of pots get big enough to where it matters, but you are likely getting your money in with way the best of it, in those situations.

As a 3:2 favorite, we are essentially throwing away $335 in EV (as opposed to $185, as an 11:9 favorite) by making the laydown, and I don't think I could justify that.

Intuitively, ~3:2 is where I would draw the line.

[TheJeanGenie]

Theres a balancing act going on between the EV of covering the maniac fish and the EV gained in the hand with the tag. While somewhere in mathland, there is infact a risk in dollars with a certain EV which will allow you to maximize your profits vs both the fish and the tag, but its nearly impossible do figure out.

Based on feel though, you should be able to call with KK, but thats pretty standard really.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
Based on feel though, you should be able to call with KK

[/ QUOTE ]
Uhm...

[TheJeanGenie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Based on feel though, you should be able to call with KK

[/ QUOTE ]
Uhm...

[/ QUOTE ]

Do explain.

[DJ Sensei]

Given the situation you described (depends a lot on relative position of course), I think I expect to take about $750 off the fish. The other TAG should get $750, and the nits should get the rest.

If you only had $1000, your expectation may be about $500 or so, on account of not being able to play pots bigger than $1000 each. (which are much less frequent than smaller pots, hence the proportionally small change in EV.)

So if your TAG battle has an EV of +$250 or more, take it. If not... [censored], I don't want to turn down any EV.

bahhhh! I call with a 55/45 edge here, i think. I don't think we're getting enough extra EV from having a $2500 stack to justify it.

Now, if the stacks were $10000 on a $1k cap buyin... would be a lot different.

[punter11235]

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ok fine, then at what point would call?


[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on how fishy is the fish but I dont see how to give exact measure here.