Never Going Busto

flippetyflop · #1 09-24-2007, 01:39 PM

Hi Folks, Just A Quickie.

Basically about 7 months ago I went on a really sick tourney/cash game run and spun up my bankroll of $190 to $15000 in the space of about 2-3 weeks. However due to playing above my limits/impatient and tilt I went BUSTO in an even shorter space of time.

7 months later I have now $4000 dollars in my bankroll and am intent on not making the same mistake again. I've gained a little bit more exeperience, play better than I did before and I tilt a lot less.

The question is I want to only play at levels which ensure that my risk of busto is near minimal....should I be playing 1/2 dollar heads up cash games with only 23 buy ins..is this advisable?

If I decide on mainly playing MTT's what sort of buy in should be my maximum? Is it advisable for example for to be playing in 69 dollar tournaments?

TrvChBoy · #2 09-24-2007, 09:29 PM

One good measure to avoid getting broke is to always play for 5% of your bankroll. If you roll is $4k, play $200 tourneys. If your bankroll goes up to $10k, play in $500 tourneys. If your bankroll goes down to $1k, play in $50 tourneys.

I play in $2 tourneys, so you know what my online bankroll is... but hey, I have not gone bust!

TrvChBoy · #3 09-24-2007, 09:31 PM

Oh, and if you want more sophisticated advice, read Fortune's Formula (Poundstone) which talks about the Kelly Criterion for maximizing profit with minimal chance of getting broke in +EV situations.

Boise123 · #4 10-09-2007, 10:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and if you want more sophisticated advice, read Fortune's Formula (Poundstone) which talks about the Kelly Criterion for maximizing profit with minimal chance of getting broke in +EV situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone have a link. I just did a search, no luck. It sounds like an interesting model.

SammyKid11 · #5 10-10-2007, 12:24 AM

Never more than 5% of your bankroll per day...

This is crap IMO - is it meant to apply to MTT's only? Cause as a professional SNG player, I wager 100% of my bankroll every day. I have 100 buyins, and I play 100 SNG's every weekday. By this 5% logic, I'd need to multiply my bankroll by 20 in order to properly play the stakes and volume I'm playing right now (I primarily play 55's - do I need over a hundred grand to play 100 55's per day?).

LOL - I'm sure I'm missing something.

pzhon · #6 10-10-2007, 03:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and if you want more sophisticated advice, read Fortune's Formula (Poundstone) which talks about the Kelly Criterion for maximizing profit with minimal chance of getting broke in +EV situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone have a link. I just did a search, no luck. It sounds like an interesting model.

[/ QUOTE ]
A search for +"Kelly" +"Criterion" in all forums found 24 posts in the last month, including a link I posted to Kelly's original paper.

Boise123 · #7 10-10-2007, 04:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oh, and if you want more sophisticated advice, read Fortune's Formula (Poundstone) which talks about the Kelly Criterion for maximizing profit with minimal chance of getting broke in +EV situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does anyone have a link. I just did a search, no luck. It sounds like an interesting model.

[/ QUOTE ]
A search for +"Kelly" +"Criterion" in all forums found 24 posts in the last month, including a link I posted to Kelly's original paper.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, I did something wrong.

dfwdevil · #8 09-25-2007, 01:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
One good measure to avoid getting broke is to always play for 5% of your bankroll.

[/ QUOTE ]

Woah now, slow down. The rule isn't "always play for 5% of your bankroll" it's "never play for more than 5% of your bankroll." And that 5% isn't some figure carved in stone. A lot of players would recommend 2%, especially considering that the OP, no offense, has already pissed away a 15k roll once before. He pissed it away like it was nothing so I think he should consider himself as being on probation, big time, and that means he's going to, if he knows what's good for him, resist his natural tendency to play higher and higher limits in search of the next biggest score. He's going to do the opposite, and purposefully force himself to grind it out for a little bit, until the idea of having a few thousand isn't so exciting to him.

OP, it's the deer in the headlights syndrome. Don't lose your 15k roll before you find out what it's like to play poker correctly with a 15k roll. And don't lose your 4K roll trying to make it a 15k roll. Don't "do" anything with your 4K roll. Immediately upon making a big score is not the time to switch limits or change your game. Play small and if you're going to make moves, do it a few weeks or months down the line.

Gonso · #9 09-25-2007, 04:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The question is I want to only play at levels which ensure that my risk of busto is near minimal....should I be playing 1/2 dollar heads up cash games with only 23 buy ins..is this advisable?

[/ QUOTE ]

Phzon will probably pop up anytime now, but before he does, 23 BI for HU NLHE is a disaster waiting to happen. I suspect you grossly underestimate the variance for HU of all things.

There are more than enough occasions where 23 BI might do for regular FR or 6-max games, and others where it's not nearly enough.

I'm okay with 23 buy-ins because I'm doing ok at my current limit, I'm able to drop down if need be, and I don't depend on the income anyway. I can replenish if I ever get short with outside income easily.

[ QUOTE ]
If your bankroll goes up to $10k, play in $500 tourneys. If your bankroll goes down to $1k, play in $50 tourneys.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is bad advice as well, especially if you're talking about MTTs.

Vetgirig · #10 09-25-2007, 06:36 AM

To insure one nearly never go broke I suggest a 1% rule. I.e. play with buy-in of 1% of ones bankroll and never ever play for more than 5% of the roll on a day.

Playing $200 turnaments with a $4K bankroll is a disaster waiting to happen. With a $4K roll an average buyin should be $40 and one should never play tournaments for more than $200 per day.

Even though I myself has an ITM% of over 20% it does happen that I have 10 turnaments without getting ITM at all remember normaly 10% gets ITM every tournament so 9 out of 10 players get OTM every tournament. So if one play for 5% of ones bankroll every turnament - its very easy to have lost 50% of the bankroll in a week. With a 1% rule one just lost 10% of the roll in a 10 OTM turnament period - and one can still continue to play the tournaments one are used to playing.

The bigger the bankroll is compared to ones buy-in the less one need to go down in levels when one is on a losing streak.

As for your question regarding playing $69 turnaments, it's not something I would normally do with a $4K roll. But I would play them from time to time say like once per week or so.