100NL: Big River Bluff of almost 100BB

Check_The_Nuts · #1 07-13-2007, 12:47 PM

Villian is a regular and we have a lot of history. He's 24/12/2. I've played quite a bit with him at both 50NL and 100NL.

Here's one relevant hand that he'd definitely remember:
Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($100)
Button ($112.05)
SB ($211.85)
BB ($252.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $3.5, 1 fold, SB raises to $12.5, 1 fold, Hero calls $9.

Flop: ($26) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $21.5, Hero calls $21.50.

Turn: ($69) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($69) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $66 (All-In), SB calls $66.

Final Pot: $201

Results in white below: 
SB has Js Jh (two pair, jacks and nines).
Hero has As Qd (two pair, queens and nines).
Outcome: Hero wins $201. 

FWIW I don't repop him lightly very often, if ever. Mostly because he only has a 12% PFR so its kind of stupid to. So I think he puts me on a fairly tight range on the flop. How light do you think he'll look me up on the river?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($93.45)
MP ($259.05)
CO ($84.75)
Button ($172.35)
Hero ($136.25)
BB ($33)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Button raises to $4.5, Hero raises to $16.5, 1 fold, MP folds, Button calls $12.

Flop: ($35) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $25, Button calls $25.

Turn: ($85) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($85) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $94.75 (All-In)

Poker_is_Hard · #2 07-13-2007, 12:50 PM

If he is a solid player as you stated, I think you get alot to fold here.

Based on he's action prior to river, I don't think he has KK or AA. I think everything else folds outside of a set.

B-P-L · #3 07-14-2007, 05:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If he is a solid player as you stated, I think you get alot to fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

No no no. If he's a solid player you HARDLY EVER get a fold here. What is he calling the flop with that will fold after this action? After being checked to on the turn, he's gonna bet nearly every hand that beats you and that will also fold to this river bet. He is playing the same pot-control/induce bluff game that you played with him in the first hand (in which you simply got extremely lucky, BTW). This is the most transparent of bluffs and very, very, very -EV.

PokerStorm · #4 07-14-2007, 06:14 AM

What do you expect him to call OP with? When he is checked to on the turn he will bet all sets and AA/KK, he might check QQ behind. So we know he is weak and all that is left is the mid pocket pairs. If the villain is decent he should be folding them on the river here (bar he has 1010), two overcards on the board that op could have hit, as in the first hand, and the op could still have a big pair here as it wouldnt be that strange to check the turn to the villain in the hope that he would hang himself.

Fousekis · #5 07-13-2007, 12:53 PM

You are both deep, he could be calling pre-flop with a wider range than usual.

His call on the flop is a bit weird, I am not sure what to make of it. I am not sure if a push on the river is the right move. I think I'd rather make it look like a value bet @ 3/4 pot.

Check_The_Nuts · #6 07-13-2007, 12:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are both deep, he could be calling pre-flop with a wider range than usual.

His call on the flop is a bit weird, I am not sure what to make of it. I am not sure if a push on the river is the right move. I think I'd rather make it look like a value bet @ 3/4 pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would never ever make that bet as a valuebet and villian should realize this from the above hand.

DawnToDusk · #7 07-13-2007, 01:00 PM

Im confused. Why not?

Poker_is_Hard · #8 07-13-2007, 12:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are both deep, he could be calling pre-flop with a wider range than usual.

His call on the flop is a bit weird, I am not sure what to make of it. I am not sure if a push on the river is the right move. I think I'd rather make it look like a value bet @ 3/4 pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you were really value betting, 3/4 the pot makes no sense, if he is going to call that he is going to call a shove.

Say you were value betting a set of Jacks here, what hand calls 3/4 the pot, but folds to a shove?

Capitan23 · #9 07-13-2007, 01:18 PM

I think he folds here in most cases, unless the river helped him somehow. It's nice that you have that first hand, the two situations are very alike. The difference is, you're the one putting all the pressure on in the second hand. I think you will take this down most of the time, what could he be calling you with? A set, AJ, maybe JTs

Hince · #10 07-13-2007, 01:27 PM

I think the hand above shows that his calling range on the flop is going to be very simular to his calling range on the river.

Ie. you have very little fold equity here.

The fact that he smooth called, then checked behind on the turn suggests that he has some showdown value and nothing scary happened to change than on the last 2 streets.

These types of bluffs rarely work for me, so I stopped doing them. I do, however, think that this is a great value shove if you hold an overpair.